Core ideas:
Q4 income growth becomes positive, and performance growth shows an inflection point. The company expects to achieve an operating income of 7.713 billion yuan in 19 years, a decrease of 42.0% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 61 million yuan, a decrease of 96.2% over the same period last year.
The growth rate of Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 income is-60%, 70%, 48%, 6%, respectively, and the growth rate of net profit is-2852%, 195%, 97%, 52%, 52%, respectively, and the performance shows an inflection point.
With the investment of state-owned assets, the liquidity of the company is expected to improve. The major shareholders of the company transferred 5% of their shares to Beijing Yingrun Huimin Fund and Beijing Chaohuixin respectively, and the actual controller was transformed into Beijing Chaoyang District SASAC. The investment of state-owned assets will help to improve the liquidity crisis of the company. From the perspective of cash flow statement, with the gradual progress of PPP projects in hand, the future operating cash flow will continue to improve. Recently, the company applied to issue no more than 3 billion yuan of preferred shares. in addition, according to the minutes of the company's exchange meeting on December 4, 19, the company plans to issue no more than 3 billion of private equity bonds and no more than 2 billion of public bonds. If the issue is successful, it will greatly improve the company's borrowing structure and capital cost.
Special debt has increased and the proportion of investment in ecological and environmental protection has increased, which is beneficial for the company to take orders. In 2020, various localities disclosed that some of the new special bond issuance plans totaled 978.1 billion yuan, of which 7817Universe 168.2 billion yuan had been issued in January / February, while the national issuance volume in January / February 2019 was 1,412 / 166.6 billion yuan, a substantial increase over the same period last year. Among them, the proportion of investment in the field of ecological and environmental protection reached 9.06%, an increase in 6.49pct compared with the proportion of the whole year 19. The increase in downstream demand will help the company to undertake orders in the future, which will guarantee the company's future revenue and performance growth.
Profit forecast and investment advice. With the improvement of the financing environment, the company's on-hand projects are expected to be gradually promoted, the company's gross profit margin and net profit margin will be improved, and the rate of management and financial expenses will also be reduced. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 19-21 years is 0.61 won 10.04 / 1.403 billion yuan respectively. At present, the average PE of comparable companies in the A-share market is about 17.9 times in 2020 and 14.5 times in 2021. At the same time, with reference to the company's historical valuation center, the company is valued at 18 times PE in 2020, with a reasonable value of 6.73 yuan per share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the newly signed order is not as expected; the investment of state-owned assets is less than expected to improve the company's operation.