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国泰君安国际(1788.HK):收入创新高逢机高额减值 财富管理仍是亮点

中泰國際 ·  Mar 23, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Revenue reached a record high. However, the high provision exceeded market expectations, the company's 2019 revenue increased 40% year over year to HK$4,246 million, a record high. However, net profit increased 12% year over year to $895 million lower than expected (-24.6%), mainly because the company's net impairment of loans and advances to customers reached HK$909 million. The company's dividend ratio increased to 57%, ROE to 8.1%, ROA to 0.97%, and annual dividend of HK$0.07 per share. The income structure is more balanced, with fees and commissions accounting for 33% of income, interest income accounting for 36%, and investment income accounting for 31%. Financial products, market making and investment, and corporate finance businesses performed well throughout the year. There was strong growth in corporate financing. Wealth management outperformed peer corporate financing underwriting revenue by 36% to $809 million, DCM underwriting revenue (completed 189 orders) rose 23% to HK$594 million, and ECM advisory and financing advisory revenue surged 92%. Against the backdrop of an 18.9% decline in the turnover of the Hong Kong stock market for the full year of 2019, the company's brokerage commission revenue rose 17% from year to year to HK$531 million. The wealth management team showed that customer custody capital had exceeded $19 billion. The Warren and Bull & Bear Securities business, which began at the end of 2019, can also further boost brokerage trading volume. In December 2019, clients can invest in listed stocks in Vietnam through brokerage services. In addition, income from financial products, market making, and investment businesses benefited from the Chinese dollar bond market, which increased 166% year over year to HK$1,734 billion. The company completed premium stock offering financing of 2.7 billion yuan in mid-March. In addition to holding 7.15 billion dollars in cash and cash equivalents, with abundant cash flow, management hoped to seize development opportunities this year, and stated that the 909 million provision was mainly for high-risk loan business before 2017, and that the risk of additional financing business thereafter was not significant. As of the end of 2019, the company's margin financing LTV was 31%. Transactional assets accounted for 31% of controllable companies' investment income in 2019. Management emphasized that most of them were fixed income asset interest, and transactional income accounted for only 11% of total revenue. Fluctuations in the US dollar bond market have increased recently. The company has significantly increased its share of investment grade bonds in March, and will continue to pay attention to market and credit risk. Adjust the profit forecast to give a target price of HK$1.39 to maintain a high level of stability, business balance, and attractive dividend rates among Chinese brokerage firms in Hong Kong. Combining recent market fluctuations and company performance, we fine-tuned the company's 2020 revenue forecast to $4.196 billion, lowered net profit to $1.04 billion (-15.9%), and given a target price of HK$1.39, corresponding to a 20-year PB of 0.8 times. The target price corresponds to a potential increase of 44.8% in current prices. Risk warning: (1) sharp fluctuations in financial markets and environmental deterioration; (2) shrinking market turnover

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