Investment Summary:
The full layout of the company under the full cold chain strategy after 2015, under the expectation of high demand in the cold chain market, the early low base brings it a profit margin breakthrough, and there are high flexible investment opportunities in the transformation node of the company.
Demand-driven food cold chain as the core promotion, medical cold chain has a breakthrough. The CAGR of the cold chain market reached 19.5% in the past six years, with food, medical and chemical demand accounting for 90:9:1. The first two welcome the opportunity of industrial dividend.
Food cold chain: there is a significant contradiction between supply and demand in the market, and fresh e-commerce + cross-border trade drives the marginal boost of business.
Cold chain rigid demand: the cold chain trading volume of agricultural products has increased by 20.3% in the past 18 years, and the demand for water / meat / dairy products is outstanding. Local agricultural differences lead to cold chain rigid demand, and the problems of low circulation rate, high decay rate and unsalable need to be solved urgently.
Fresh e-commerce: scale breakthrough, retail substitution stimulates cold chain expansion. With the accelerated injection of capital, the CAGR of fresh 4 years reached 36.2%, and its strong replacement of retail terminals led to cold chain coverage under the acceleration of the epidemic.
Cross-border trade: cold chain food imports CAGR reached 13-40%. Driven by consumption upgrading and "Belt and Road Initiative", imported cold chain food is expected to increase, and port cold chain capacity disparity promotes cold chain expansion.
Under the contradiction of cold chain supply and demand, the policy promotes the new infrastructure backbone cold chain logistics base project to bring industrial dividend. The marginal growth rate of cold chain transport vehicles, freezers and commercial display cabinets has been raised, confirming that the cold chain is developing at the right time.
The growth rate of the company's freezer business continues to rise. Driven by the food cold chain, the commercial share of the freezer market has increased, and under the restructuring layout of the company, the business growth rate has reached 21% in 18 years. The retail end growth rate has substantially outperformed the market, and it is expected to seize the cold chain increment space.
Medical cold chain: policy assistance, high demand for biological sample database and medical safety, and business boost.
The medical cold chain covers only about 10%, accounting for 18.2% of the global cold chain logistics, and there is still a gap in the industry.
The epidemic drives biosafety awakening. The introduction of the Biosafety Law is expected to be speeded up, and stringent regulation and industrial policy dividends contribute to the marginal outbreak of medical cold chain allocation demand.
Biological sample database: hospital clinical and pharmaceutical enterprise research and development may become the main demand, it is estimated that only large-scale hospital cryogenic storage equipment space is 1.58 billion yuan, pharmaceutical companies, other institutions and other needs of the actual space is more considerable.
Cold chain safety: in the cold chain drug market, the vaccine growth rate is steady, there is still a gap of magnitude of blood slurry collection, the domestic growth rate of biological drugs is 20%, the potential space for diagnostic reagents is large, and the demand for equipment is increased by high storage.
The company's medical cold chain has higher expectations for profit improvement. With the technological upgrading to the forefront of the world, the company has become only three domestic enterprises that can fully cover medical cold chain equipment. Under the policy of "self-control", the competition pattern is improving, the business 19H1 is up 63%, and the high profit characteristics of the business are expected to boost profits.
High safety pads and marginal signals enhance the company's high performance certainty.
Equity incentives, compensation for collection and storage, and the release of new business in the industrial park are the underpinning of performance. Under the requirement of equity incentive performance, the company's profit-making driving force in 19-21 is strong; the subsidiary's subsequent collection and storage compensation brings more than 100 million profits to the listed company; and the intelligent industrial park adds new rent / sale business revenue.
There are expectations of mixed reform in the bidding projects of municipal enterprises, and the landing will be beneficial to the optimization of the organizational structure.
Investment suggestion: under the double-drive opportunity of the core growth of food cold chain and the breakthrough of medical cold chain demand, the company welcomes the transformation node of full cold chain, the business increases the profit with high elasticity, and the performance under the high safety cushion releases strong certainty. It is estimated that the EPS of the company in 19-21 will be 0.25, 0.38, 0.44 yuan, and the PE will be 22.2, 14.5, 12.5 times. Combined with absolute and relative valuations, the six-month target price is 8.16-8.36 yuan. For the first time, coverage gives an "overweight" rating.
Risk hint: the landing of cold chain related projects is not as expected; the release of food cold chain demand is not as expected; the promotion of medical policy is not as expected.