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东华软件(002065):乘鹏霄以千里 下一个百亿收入的开始

中金公司 ·  Mar 7, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The investment proposal takes into account that the cooperation between Donghua Software and Huawei is getting better, and we believe that the company is entering the next 10 billion revenue business. We raised our target price to $21. The reason is to go deep into the Huawei Kunpeng ecosystem, and it has gone thousands of miles. Beginning in 2019, Huawei built the Kunpeng computing industry ecosystem around the Kunpeng 920 chip. We believe the Kunpeng ecosystem is expected to become the second pole of the ICT industry. Donghua Software is deeply involved in the Kunpeng ecosystem. In January 2020, it and Huawei jointly released the “Pengxiao” server, which was first used in Ningbo, and has begun replicating routes in many places. The company plans to achieve revenue of over 10 billion yuan and profits of over 1 billion yuan in the first year. We believe that 2020-2022 will usher in the next round of server computing power upgrade cycle. At the same time, the development of domestic credit and innovation work will create opportunities for Kunpeng architecture servers to break the existing industry pattern. We are optimistic that “Pengxiao” will open up the growth ceiling for the company. Having been deeply involved in the industry for nearly 20 years, established integrators have a rich heritage. The company is one of the first “first-class” integrators in China, and its position in the industry is deeply rooted. The company's management and business strategy are stable, and the equity structure has been further refined through equity transfers to strengthen the alliance with Tencent. Years of accumulation have created the company's strong 2B and 2G sales capabilities, and there are plenty of orders on hand. We believe that the digestion of future orders will bring the company's size to the next level. The solutions cover all fields, and the performance of the medical informatization business is impressive. The company's business has blossomed in many places, covering many hot industries such as finance, healthcare, and smart cities. The financial informatization business continues to grow steadily, and the upgrading of old customers and the development of new customers and new businesses has brought about business growth. The medical informatization business is quite bright. We believe that 2020 will usher in three major opportunities: Donghua Medical will join hands with Tencent to launch the iMedical Cloud platform and cloud HIS products in March 2019 to promote the transformation of smart healthcare to the cloud; policies have been introduced frequently under the pandemic to accelerate the integration of Internet healthcare into health insurance, which we believe will bring increased demand for the company in medical insurance informatization construction; and the inflection point in the Internet medical industry will also accelerate. Profit forecasts and valuations take into account the deferred settlement of the company's revenue. At the same time, “Peng Xiao” has a synergistic effect with the original business. We lowered the 2019 revenue forecast by 12% to 8.6 billion yuan and the net profit forecast 3% to 650 million yuan; raised the 2020 revenue forecast 16% to 12.8 billion yuan and the net profit forecast 49% to 1.35 billion yuan; raised the 2021 revenue forecast by 36% to 16.5 billion yuan, and increased the net profit forecast by 51% to 1.57 billion yuan. The target price was raised by 91% to 21 yuan. The main reason is that the profit forecast was raised, the valuation was rolled over to 2020, and the overall market valuation level rose. The target price corresponds to 50/42 times the 2020/2021 price-earnings ratio, which is 31% higher than the current stock price. The current stock price corresponds to 37/32 times the 2020/2021 price-earnings ratio. The implementation and marketing of risky projects fell short of expectations, R&D expenses exceeded expectations, and revenue recognition was delayed.

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