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科创板申购策略-佳华科技(688051)

國泰君安 ·  Mar 4, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Taking into account the valuations of the industry and comparable companies, as well as the price reduction behavior caused by the risk of excluding high prices during the inquiry process, we expect the issuance price range of Jiahua Technology to be 49.24 yuan - 52.32 yuan. Abstract: Currently, the market has entered a stage of information validity and inter-institutional low price competition. Taking into account the valuations of the industry and comparable companies, as well as the price suppression behavior caused by the risk of excluding high prices during the inquiry process, we expect the corresponding inquiry range of Jiahua Technology, which was inquired on March 5, to be between 49.24 yuan and 52.32 yuan. Jiahua Technology has the IoT industry chain layout and customer advantages of the government and state-owned enterprises, and is a pioneer in the field of smart environmental protection. The company started with the production and design of complete intelligent electrical equipment in 2004 and undertook research on key technologies for intelligent mass data centers. In 2015, the company's technology moved to the field of smart environmental protection and smart cities, and in 2016, it began investing in the construction of a cloud chain database to build a national atmospheric environment big data AI system. The company created the “Tongzhou Model” of atmospheric management using the microstation model. The first-mover advantage in the field of smart environmental protection enabled the company to obtain the construction of pollution source monitoring systems in Shanxi Province and the construction of environmental IoT systems for power companies in Shanghai, Henan, Shandong and other places. The share of sales revenue in the smart environmental protection and smart city sectors increased from 14.13% in 2016 to 63.96% in 2019 Q3. The two businesses have high technical barriers, and gross margin has maintained a high level of gross margin, contributing considerable profits to the company. The size of the environmental protection market exceeds trillion yuan, while the smart environmental protection market in 2018 was only 52.1 billion yuan. However, the boom in environmental policies and the maturity of ICT technology will continue to increase the scale of investment in the smart environmental protection sector. In the future, blockchain will solve the pain points of data sharing in the industry, the demand for data integration and intelligent applications will further increase, and the fields of smart environmental protection and smart cities will create growth opportunities for the company. Based on the above analysis and disclosure in the company's prospectus, based on product or business similarity, we selected Yi Hualu (300212.SZ), Yinjiang Co., Ltd. (300020.SZ), Nanwei Software (603636.SH), Taiji Co., Ltd. (002368.SZ), and Digital Government Communications (300075.SZ) as comparable companies. Comparable companies' 2018 price-earnings ratio forecast value is 48.97-85.12 times, with an average value of 65.20 times; the 2019 price-earnings ratio forecast value is 36.95-67.77 times, with an average value of 52.21 times. Referring to the company's industry “I65 Software and Information Technology Service Industry”, the static price-earnings ratio for the past month (up to March 4, 2020) was 67.57 times. Using comparable company and industry valuations as a benchmark, considering the price reduction behavior caused by excluding risk from high prices during the inquiry process, the valuation of Jiahua Technology was discounted to a certain extent. Based on the 2019 net profit disclosed in the prospectus, a valuation range of 32-34 times PE is given, calculated by estimating that the total share capital after issuance does not exceed 773.36 million shares. The estimated market value after issuance is estimated to be 38.08-4.046 billion yuan, and the corresponding issue price range is 49.24 yuan - 52.32 yuan. Risk warning: (1) Be wary of the 10% risk of rigid exclusion from high prices and secondary game behavior on the day of market quotes. (2) IoT technology updates and iterations are progressing rapidly, and the company's new product development progress falls short of expectations

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