Summary:
At present, the market has entered the stage of information effectiveness and inter-agency low-price game, taking into account the valuation of industry and comparable companies, as well as the underpricing behavior caused by high price elimination risk in the process of inquiry. We estimate that the corresponding inquiry range of Nanxin Pharmaceutical on March 11 is between 34.63 yuan and 35.28 yuan.
Nanxin Pharmaceutical, with the R & D and production of new drug products as the core, has an absolute advantage in the field of anti-influenza virus drugs, and is the leader in the fields of paramivir and ciprofloxacin. In the past three years, the compound growth rate of revenue and return net profit of the company was 70.84% and 83.56% respectively. The proportion of paramivir sales increased year by year, and it became the company's largest product with 51.26% of main revenue in 2019. Minne.com data show that in 2018, Nanxin Pharmaceutical has a market share of 100%, 62.19% and 29.9% in paramivir, ciprofloxacin, simvastatin tablets and other areas respectively, and the market segment is absolutely leading. In addition, the company also layout cefaclor, cefuroxime and other products, through a rich product pipeline for differential competition. In 2018, the company greatly increased its independent production capacity through the full investment of the new product line, and retained a certain production capacity for the market demand in the past five years. With the expansion of health insurance and the introduction of multiple policies to promote the rapid development of the pharmaceutical manufacturing industry, it is expected that the pharmaceutical industry will continue to maintain a high demeanor, and the company will benefit from the market position in the field of anti-influenza virus and the expected income of products under development in the future.
Based on the above analysis and the disclosure of the company's prospectus, we choose 688278.SH, 300584.SZ, 002900.SZ and 300485.SZ as comparable companies according to the similarity of products or business. Due to its low performance, Tebao Biological has a high price-to-earnings ratio with little reference significance. Considering other comparable companies, the forecast value of 2018 price-to-earnings ratio is 20.18-40.52 times, with an average of 31.03 times; and 2019 price-to-earnings ratio is 21.18-35.6 times, with an average of 30.22 times.
Referring to the "C27 Pharmaceutical Manufacturing Industry" of the company's industry, which has a static price-to-earnings ratio of 38.27 times for nearly a month (as of March 10, 2020), we take the valuation of comparable companies and industry valuations as the basis, taking into account the status of Nanxin Pharmaceutical in the field of anti-influenza virus and the process of innovative drugs under development, compared with comparable non-Science and Technology Innovation Board companies, give a certain valuation premium. According to the 2019 net profit disclosed in the prospectus, the valuation range of 53-54 times PE is given, which is calculated on the basis that the total share capital after the issue is not more than 140 million shares. the market value after the issue is estimated to be 48.48-4.939 billion yuan, and the corresponding offering price range is 34.63-35.28 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) beware of 10% high price rigid elimination risk and the second game behavior on the day of market quotation. (2) the research and development progress of the products under research is not as expected.