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思考乐教育(1769.HK):深耕大湾区 持续优化扩张模式

興業證券 ·  Mar 20, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The adjusted net profit growth rate of 63.6% was in line with expectations, and the dividend policy was generous: in 2019, the company's revenue reached 711 million yuan, up 44.3% year on year, and adjusted net profit was 136 million yuan, up 63.6% year on year, exceeding our expectations by 2.2%. Overall, it was in line with expectations. At the end of 2019, the company announced a final dividend of $0.06 per share and a special dividend of $0.06 per share. The dividend rate reached 49% of the adjusted net profit for the year. The store opening plan is increasing year by year, and the impact of the epidemic is limited: by the end of 2019, the company had opened 100 learning centers, of which 12 were opened in the first half of 2019 and 34 in the second half of 2019. In 2020-2022, the company expects to open 36, 40, and 52 new learning centers respectively. In the short term, it will mainly increase the market share of the Greater Bay Area and surrounding areas, and the store opening plan will increase year by year. The impact of the epidemic on the company as a whole is limited. The company's refund rate for online teaching during the winter vacation period is within 5%, and the attendance rate is 89%. Up to now, spring course revenue has increased 10% year-on-year. If offline teaching can resume normally in late April, the impact on the company's annual growth target will be limited. Steady layout of online education, with sufficient cash on account: In 2018, the company began to build online schools for thought fun, cultivating three models: double teacher classes (cooperation model with third parties), large class teacher recording and broadcast courses, and OMO small class online courses. Under the pandemic, online courses based on the Classin platform have performed well. The company plans to continue to increase the cultivation of online education business, with a target share of 30% of long-term online revenue. As of the end of 2019, the company's cash and equivalents, and financial assets measured at fair value reached 1.04 billion yuan, with sufficient cash flow. Maintain the “buy” rating, raise the target price to HK$15, further cultivate the Greater Bay Area, and continue to optimize the expansion model: in 2019, the company launched a teacher training system, equity incentives and fission partnership mechanisms, and will continue to expand into the Greater Bay Area and surrounding markets for the next 2-3 years. We believe that short-term market familiarity will drive continuous improvement of the company's expansion mechanism, and performance growth will be guaranteed. At the same time, the stability of the core executive and principal team is one of the major advantages of the company's future expansion, and online business development will also protect steady growth. We expect the company's operating income in 2020-2022 to be RMB 9.5, 13.9 and 1.93 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 33.7%, 46.5% and 38.7%, respectively, and adjusted net profit of RMB 1.74, 2.52 and 351 million yuan respectively, up 27.5%, 45.3% and 39% year-on-year respectively. Maintaining the “buy” rating, the target price was raised to HK$15. The target price corresponding to the 2020-2022 PE was 43, 30, and 21 times, respectively, with room for 57% increase from the closing price on March 20, 2020. Risk warning: 1), competition in China's education industry is fierce; 2), the number of qualified teachers hired and retained falls short of expectations; 3), changes in China's education policy; 4), the quality of teaching has declined; 5), expansion from other locations falls short of expectations.

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