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北辰实业(601588):收购集团土地 销售抵御疫情不利影响

Beichen Industrial (601588): Acquiring Group Land Sales to Withstand the Adverse Effects of the Epidemic

海通證券 ·  Mar 20, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company's enterprises continue to fight the epidemic prevention and control obstruction war, laying a good foundation for the smooth development of business after the epidemic.

Property: Since the outbreak of the epidemic, Beichen Xincheng Property Company has always adhered to the frontline of community prevention and control, watched and helped the community, and carried out joint prevention and control to ensure the safety and stability of the area under its jurisdiction. Exhibition: The Convention and Exhibition Group's Epidemic Prevention and Control Leading Group responded positively to the group's unified deployment and urgently dispatched personnel to the community to fight the “epidemic”

First line. Hotel: Linzhi Beichen Wuzhou Crown Hotel immediately responded to local government hotel requests to suspend operations, extend vacations, and postpone the resumption of work. Office buildings: In actual work, the Times Commercial Project takes multiple measures according to the characteristics of the commercial project format to provide epidemic prevention protection for people entering shopping malls.

In January-February 2020, despite the adverse effects of the pandemic, the company achieved an increase in sales rankings. According to Kerley Database's “China Real Estate Enterprise Sales Ranking”, in 2019, the company achieved full-scale sales of 23.62 billion yuan (ranked 101st). In January-February 2020, under the adverse effects of the epidemic, the company still achieved full-caliber sales of 2.23 billion yuan (ranking 75th), and the industry ranking rose. At the same time, since the company's full-caliber sales data for January to January 2019 was lower than the sales data of Ludu Real Estate, which ranked last 100 million yuan, for the same period and did not enter the Kerry publication list, we expect the company's full-caliber sales amount from January to January 2020 to increase by more than 44.6% year-on-year (= 22.3/15.42-1).

Acquire land assets of group companies to enhance financing space. According to the company's related transaction announcement on September 28, 2019, the company intends to use cash to acquire some land use rights in Asian Games Village, No. 8, Beichen East Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, held by Beijing Beichen Industrial Group Co., Ltd. The total land to be transferred is 235,500 square meters. The initial assessment value without tax is about RMB 4.739 billion (equivalent to 20,100 yuan/square meter). The land uses are apartments, offices, commerce, underground commerce, underground offices, underground garages and underground storage.

The estimated revenue achieved by the underlying asset and the building above ground for the full fiscal years of 2019, 2020, and 2021 is not less than RMB 808 million, $762 million, and RMB 893 million, respectively. We believe this transaction created conditions for the company to upgrade the company's properties in the Asian Games Village in the future, resolve asset integrity issues, and further enhance the company's financing space.

Investment advice. Create a first-class complex real estate and exhibition brand with a “superior to the market” rating. The company's main business includes property development and property investment (including hotels). The project focuses on key cities in 15 hot regions, including North China, Central China, East China, and Southwest China. The properties owned and operated by the company include exhibitions, hotels, office buildings, apartments, pension, etc., with an area of over 1.27 million square meters, of which 1.2 million are on average located in the core area of Beijing's Yaao. Furthermore, the company has become the largest exhibition brand enterprise managing the total area of venues in China. We expect the company's EPS to be 0.44 yuan and 0.54 yuan respectively in 2019-2020, and the corresponding RNAV is 12.38 yuan. Considering that the company is building a first-class complex real estate and exhibition brand with excellent assets, the company was given 9 times PE and 0.40 times RNAV in 2019. The corresponding reasonable value range was 3.96 yuan to 4.95 yuan, and the company was given a “superior to market” rating. Risk warning. The company faces two major risks: the fluctuation of the epidemic and the regulation of real estate policies.

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