During the period of customer structural transformation, short-term performance was under pressure. The company released its 2019 performance report. The company achieved revenue of 3.71 billion yuan, yoy 1.47%, operating profit of 586 million yuan, yoy -11.98%, net profit to mother of 524 million yuan, and yoy -6.36%. Due to adverse factors such as the macro trade environment, the company's overseas revenue declined, and gross margin was under pressure. 5G products are gradually being shipped, which is expected to usher in a period of explosive performance. On March 4 of this year, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee proposed speeding up the construction of new infrastructure such as 5G networks. Recently, following China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom also announced the 5G Phase II tender plan. According to statistics, the three major operators have successively initiated equipment tenders for a total of nearly 500,000 5G base stations. Since the 3rd quarter, the company's 5G high-frequency high-speed board samples have progressed smoothly. It is expected that 2020 will usher in a harvest period. The company's 5G customers include ZTE, Firefight, Putian, CommScope, and Calix. The average price of 5G PCB board products is far higher than the average unit price of the company, and the adjustment of the product structure is expected to bring higher profits. As 5G construction accelerates and the penetration rate of the company's 5G products increases, the company's performance is expected to explode. The company actively optimizes the product structure and customer structure, and is progressing smoothly. The company continues to increase the communications and consumer electronics product markets, open up a full product line layout, and further optimize the product structure. In the transformation of the company, high-volume orders went smoothly. In '19, the company's high-volume orders accounted for about 7 floors of sales area. The company HDI is introducing consumer products such as smartphones, and this business is expected to grow rapidly in 2020. In addition, the company has successively participated in Sandeoguan and Prunow to lay out FPC and IC carrier board technology. The technical strength of the Three German Championship is strong. Its FPC has already supplied the Huawei Mate X series phones. As the number of foldable phone shipments increases, the performance of the Three German Championship is expected to usher in rapid growth. The company acquired 40% of Prowin's shares in June 2019 and officially began the layout of the IC carrier board field. Currently, the company and Proway are in a period of integrating resources such as procurement channels, customer channels, production technology, and management experience. With the completion of the integration, it is expected to enhance the company's overall competitiveness and profitability. The company is also actively promoting major customer cooperation strategies, and has reached stable cooperation with leading companies in the industry such as Toshiba, Panasonic, Flextronics, CRRC, and Hikvision. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations Due to falling short of expectations in exports and production capacity expansion, we lowered the company's earnings per share for 19-21 to 0.59/0.81/0.99 yuan (original forecast of 0.84/1.05/1.31 yuan). According to the 20-year 30-fold valuation of comparable companies, the corresponding target price is 24.3 yuan, maintaining an increase rating. Risk warning: 5G application progress falls short of expectations, production capacity release falls short of expectations, and PCB industry prosperity falls short of expectations.
崇达技术(002815):产品和客户结构优化进展顺利 5G产品有望迎来放量
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