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伟能集团(1608.HK):缅甸项目如期进展 高速增长在望

招銀國際 ·  Feb 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

VPower Group and China Technology Import and Export (CNTIC) formed a joint venture to jointly develop three IBO power generation projects with a total production capacity of 900 MW in Myanmar. Management expects these projects to be put into operation in 2Q20 and achieve full production in July 2020. In terms of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, the company was only slightly affected. A small number of employees were unable to return to Myanmar to resume work due to the pandemic, while the resumption of work in the system integration (SI) assembly business in China was delayed. Overall, supported by strong electricity demand growth in Southeast Asia, we believe Vaillant Group will unleash its growth momentum and that the company will unleash profit growth in the 2020/21 fiscal year as scheduled. Reiterate the purchase. Form strong partners to build projects in Myanmar. Vaillant and China Technology Import and Export Corporation have had a cooperative relationship for more than 10 years through EPC engineering services. With the support of the Chinese government, China Technology Import and Export Corporation has strong financing capabilities and long-term project experience in many developing country markets. With the support of China Technology Import and Export Corporation, the company was able to leverage its limited resources to develop large-scale projects in Myanmar. According to our estimate of 900MW of installed capacity, it accounts for 18.0% of Myanmar's total installed power generation capacity. By merging with the projects currently in operation with VPower, the company will participate in Myanmar's total installed power generation capacity of more than 22%. Project and reserve status update: Generally carried out as scheduled. In Sri Lanka, Vaillant signed two new power generation projects and obtained nearly 100 MW of project size in this newly developed national market. Projects in Indonesia and Brazil have been slightly delayed. In terms of the UK peaking project crew, management expects the Doncasater 20.3MW project to be put into operation in 2020, and the remaining project reserves of over 100 MW will be extended to 2021 depending on the progress of Brexit. We expect Venerable to achieve 150 MW of new IBO projects in 2020. Coupled with the 450MW equity installed capacity in Myanmar, we believe the company will achieve significant growth in the scale of IBO projects in 2020. Achieved a high profit growth rate in 2020/21. For 2019, we expect VPower to achieve a net profit of HK$249 million. Based on a more conservative new consolidated production capacity assumption, we lowered our 2020 consolidated production capacity forecast from 190 MW to 150 MW. Our EPS forecast remains largely unchanged. We expect the company to achieve an EPS growth rate of 65.8%/57.9% to HK$0.161/0.254 in 2020/21, respectively. Reiterate the purchase. After experiencing significant adjustments in the company's stock price, the current transaction valuation is only 13.3/8.4 times the predicted price-earnings ratio for 2020/21. The company will release financial results on March 30. As the company's management releases more information and guidance on future business development and profitability, we believe the company will be revalued. Our target price for the company remains unchanged at HK$3.25, corresponding to the 2020/21 price-earnings forecast of 20.2/12.8 times.

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