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思创医惠(300078):智能开放平台奠定未来竞争力

國泰君安 ·  Feb 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: The company's intelligent open platform design concept is advanced and has obvious competitive advantages. Connectivity is the general trend in the future, and I am optimistic about the company's future growth potential. Key investment points: Raise the rating to increase holdings and raise the company's target price to 19.33 yuan. Considering the higher cost investment than expected, the 2019-2021 EPS forecast was adjusted to 0.19 (-0.05) /0.28 (-0.08) /0.40 (-0.10) yuan. Taking into account valuation switching factors, the company's target price was raised to 19.33 (+6.36) yuan, corresponding to 48.32 times PE in 2021. The Sichuang Medicare Open Platform concept is ahead of schedule, and future performance growth will exceed expectations. We believe that the intelligent open platform business will be the focus of the company's development in the next three years. The company's medical business strategy is to focus on hospital platforms and data, take orders from large platforms, and develop microservices on large platforms. The concept is ahead of other traditional HIS vendors. Since the intelligent open platform has a high degree of standardization and few customizations and secondary development, it is much simpler to implement than HIS. The HIS system at major hospitals takes more than 1 year to implement, but the execution cycle for a 20 million order on the intelligent open platform is only 3 to 6 months, and the execution cycle for orders at the level of Guang Fu and Child or Nanjing Gulou is 2 years. The implementation personnel for a project are mobile, and the Nanjing Gulou project (100 billion orders) had 20 to 30 implementers during the peak period, so overall, it is much easier to implement an intelligent open platform. The market for intelligent open platforms exceeds 10 billion dollars, and the concentration is higher than that of the traditional medical information technology market. Assuming that the penetration rate of level 3 hospitals is 50%, the penetration rate of level 2 hospitals is 10% (only 20% of the top level 2 hospitals require a platform), and the unit price of an intelligent open platform is calculated at 6 million yuan, then the potential market space is 13.056 billion yuan, which is quite impressive. Intelligent open platforms require high technical capabilities of enterprises, so the concentration will be higher than in the traditional medical information technology market. Risk warning: Policy implementation falls short of expectations, industry competition intensifies

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