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奥园健康(03662.HK):倘突破9元 有力再上

金利豐證券 ·  Mar 9, 2020 00:00  · Researches

[Ming Pao News] The novel coronavirus outbreak has broken out in the mainland, and the property management industry has become an important part of the fight against the epidemic. Local governments in the mainland, such as Shenzhen and Hangzhou, continue to provide financial support to the property management industry to counter the short-term cost pressure on property management enterprises. I believe local governments are expected to introduce other support measures or support policies such as tax relief. Furthermore, the property management market in the mainland is huge and expanding rapidly, and the industry itself has the characteristics of strong cash flow, which has led to a huge increase in the stock prices of most property management stocks. Aoyuan Health (3662) had a positive impact earlier. It is expected that net profit for 2019 will increase by no less than 80% year on year. The increase was mainly due to the increase in the number of pre-sale display units and sales offices providing services to the group, the increase in the construction area of the managed property in the group's property management services, and the increase in the number of shopping malls newly established in commercial operation services and the construction area of shopping malls managed by the group. The group was spun off by China Aoyuan (3883) and has a long-term and stable business relationship with the parent company. At the end of last year, the group agreed on a cooperation framework with Shanghai Aoyuan Real Estate to jointly develop development projects in Fengxian District. After the completion of the local land development project, the group will provide asset-light services such as property management, investment promotion, and big health industry operation services, and collect operating expenses such as management and brand support in the project. It can be absorbed at the level of 7.8 yuan. As the parent company's business continues to grow, the property area managed by the group is also expected to soar. Furthermore, since the property management market in the mainland is huge and the industry is scattered, it is believed that there will be merger opportunities for groups in the future. The group's cash flow is stable. Bank balances and cash of RMB 997 million at the end of 2019 are RMB 997 million, and bank loans of about RMB 1.78 million have not yet been repaid. In terms of trend, on February 20, a high price of 9 yuan was blocked and declined. The ranking of the major average lines was favorable. The STC%K line fell below the %D line, and the MACD bear gap widened, so it is hoped that the lower 7.8 yuan will be absorbed. If a large transaction breaks through the 9 yuan resistance, the upward trend is expected to continue without falling below 7.2 yuan. (The author is a licensed member of the Securities Regulatory Commission and does not hold the above shares)

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