The company's performance in 2019 was slightly lower than expected, and the net profit of home ownership increased by 106.81% under the adjustment of business structure, deducting costs and expenses optimization, and the transformation to fuel cell has achieved initial results. In the future, we will continue to promote industrialization, and the value of fuel cell business can be expected. Considering that the company's fuel cell intention orders are abundant, the release performance of the new production capacity is expected to accelerate after the arrival of the new production capacity. Combined with the performance of KuaiBao in 2019, the company adjusts the company's forecast for 2019-2021 to 0.53 EPS 0.78 yuan (the original forecast is 0.53 shock 0.65 yuan), corresponding to PE53/50/34 times.
Considering the acceleration of industrialization in 2020, the plate valuation will be increased, and the target price will be raised by 30.00 yuan, corresponding to PE57 times in 2020, and the "overweight" rating will be maintained.
The company forecasts 2019 revenue / return net profit of 29.58 Sterling 174 million yuan (+ 0.07% Universe 84.29%). The company forecast 2019 revenue of 2.958 billion yuan (year-on-year + 0.07%, the same below), return to the mother net profit of 174 million yuan (+ 84.29%), close to the lower limit of the company's performance forecast, slightly lower than our previous forecast of 185 million yuan.
Based on the non-recurrent profit and loss of 83 million yuan disclosed in the three quarterly reports, the company's net profit deducted from non-return in 2019 was about 91 million yuan, a substantial increase of 106.81%. The department of fuel cells began to contribute profits, cost and expense optimization.
The progress of commercialization is leading and the strategic development direction of fuel cell is determined. The company has a leading degree of commercialization of fuel cell products. In 2019, the fuel cell system shipped 170sets (+ 7.5x), with a market share of 6%. We estimate that the corresponding business revenue is about 1.1-150 million yuan, accounting for 3.7-5.1% of the total revenue (up to 0.9-2.3pcts).
At the same time, a total of 13 models equipped with the company's products have entered the recommended catalogue of new energy vehicles of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, ranking first in the industry. Customers have Jinlong bus, Dongfeng Automobile, Shenlong bus, etc., and shipments are expected to increase significantly in 2020. The company extends the layout of the whole industry chain and participates in upstream companies such as hydrogen station operation, membrane electrode, stack and so on.
Abundant orders on hand, be sure to increase the size of the fuel cell. The company's system intention orders are abundant, currently more than 3000 units.
In 2019, on the one hand, the company shifted the funds for building lithium power production capacity in 2016 to enhanced fuel cells, and on the other hand, it plans to raise 995 million yuan in non-public offerings, all for fuel cell-related projects. Among them, the Wuhan industrialization Base / Shenzhen Industrial Park / Shenzhen Die Stack R & D project raised 523Universe 92 million yuan respectively. The construction period of Wuhan / Shenzhen project is 3 years, 36-150kW fuel cell system production line will be built in Wuhan base, 5-75kW fuel cell stack and 45kW fuel cell power system production line will be built in Shenzhen base.
Risk factors: fuel cell subsidy policy is not as expected, the landing of fuel cell system orders is not as expected, and the progress of the fixed increase project is not as expected.
Investment suggestion: the company's performance in 2019 was slightly lower than expected, and the net profit of home ownership increased by 106.81% under the adjustment of business structure, deducting costs and expenses optimization, and the transformation to fuel cell has achieved initial results. In the future, we will continue to promote industrialization, and the value of fuel cell business can be expected. Considering that the company's fuel cell intention orders are abundant, the release performance of the new production capacity is expected to accelerate after the arrival of the new production capacity. Combined with the performance of KuaiBao in 2019, the company adjusts the company's forecast for 2019-2021 to 0.53 EPS 0.78 yuan (the original forecast is 0.53 shock 0.65 yuan), corresponding to PE53/50/34 times. Considering the acceleration of industrialization in 2020, the plate valuation will be raised, and the target price will be raised to 30.00 yuan, corresponding to the PE57 times in 2020, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
