Main points of investment:
The company is an innovative pharmaceutical company. Nanxin Pharmaceutical, founded in 2006, is an innovative pharmaceutical enterprise focusing on the research, development, production and marketing of chemical drugs. The company's main product is the innovative drug paramivir sodium chloride injection, which has been gradually recognized by the market in recent years, and the sales volume has achieved rapid volume; with the continuous growth of sales revenue of paramivir and the subsequent listing of innovative drugs and improved new drugs, the company's proportion of generic drug revenue will decline year by year. At present, the company has a number of new drug products in research, the future product structure will be dominated by new drugs, supplemented by generic drugs.
The market for paramivir is vast and is expected to maintain rapid growth. The company's main product is paramivir sodium chloride injection, which is a new type of anti-influenza virus drug. At present, the domestic anti-influenza drug market is basically occupied by oseltamivir, and as an innovative drug, palamivir has obvious advantages of backwardness. paramivir is suitable for people of all ages, with a very low probability of drug resistance and a longer half-life. Because of the intravenous administration, the drug acts for a longer time, the dissociation rate is lower, and the number of drug use is reduced. With the further recognition of paramivir preparation products by the drug terminal in the clinical field, it is expected that the sales volume will continue to grow rapidly in the future and is expected to become a heavyweight variety of 2 billion yuan.
The company has moved from technology introduction to independent research and development, and the research project continues to advance. Since the introduction of paramivir in 2009, the company has begun to develop its own drugs. At present, the company has five research projects, among which metafenil is the third generation of non-nicotinic multi-target kinase inhibitor, which can inhibit multiple kinases, and the indication is advanced liver cancer, and the phase a clinical study of Ib/ Ⅱ has been launched. The indication of meflunidone hydrochloride is diabetic nephropathy, which has shown certain efficacy in animal pharmacodynamic studies, and it has been approved clinically. NX-2016 belongs to the third generation of new anti-influenza drug endonuclease inhibitors. The company has successfully discovered a number of novel endonuclease inhibitors, such as NX-2016, which are in the stage of drug development.
Company profit forecast and valuation inquiry analysis. We predict that the company will achieve an operating income of 1.383 billion yuan in 2020, an increase of 36.4% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 129 million yuan, an increase of 41.4% over the same period last year. According to the comprehensive analysis, we use the historical valuation reference method to predict the company valuation of 2.49 billion yuan, the PE method to predict the company valuation of 3.88 billion yuan, and the DCF method to predict the company valuation of 4.59 billion yuan. We take the PE valuation method as the main method, the historical valuation reference method and the DCF valuation method as the auxiliary, and give the historical valuation reference method 20% weight, PE valuation method 60% weight, DCF valuation method 20% weight respectively, and finally come to the conclusion that the current valuation of the company is about 3.74 billion yuan. We assume that the number of new shares issued by the company is 35 million shares, and the total share capital after the issue is 140 million shares; according to the company's forecast market value of 3.74 billion yuan, the corresponding stock price of the company is 26.74 yuan per share, and the proposed inquiry range is [23.26 yuan 30.23] yuan per share.
Risk tips: the risk that the main products are not sold as expected; the risk that the main products are copied; the risk of industry policies and drug bidding.