Core view: The 2019 Q4 performance exceeded expectations. Apart from the increase in operating rate, the increase in profit margins is more important, and it is a medium- to long-term trend. The market clearly underestimates this area. Combined with factors such as the accelerated increase in downstream fast charging power, product development, and major customer breakthroughs, we believe that the company's performance growth rate will clearly rise to the next level compared to previous years. The fourth quarter results greatly exceeded expectations, and the increase in revenue growth and profit margins resonated to drive the new cycle. The company's 2019 Q4 single quarter results greatly exceeded expectations. In addition to being driven by an increase in operating rates, product profitability also clearly contributed to next year, indicating that about a year of inventory removal has ended. As demand in the consumer sector accelerates growth, it is expected to drive the industry into a new boom cycle. As far as the company is concerned, in the consumer electronics sector, the increase in fast charging power will drive a sharp increase in stand-alone ASP, and the introduction of new production capacity in the industrial market are expected to gradually drive the company's revenue growth rate to the next level. At the same time, on the profit margin side, driven by factors such as direct procurement from major customers, self-supply of raw materials, and automation, it is expected to resonate with the revenue growth rate to the next level, driving the company into a new period of growth. The increase in fast charging power boosted ASP, and breakthroughs in direct customer procurement helped growth. 5G phones generally consume more power, and consumer requirements for charging speed are increasing, corresponding to the rapid increase in mobile phone charger power. The 2019 flagship models are generally 30-40W fast charging. In early 2020, 5G flagship models have raised the power to 55W and 65W levels, driving an increase in the specifications and quantity of supporting capacitors. According to disassembly data, the value of a single 65W charging head is more than 50% higher than that of 40W products. At the same time, as the core supplier of capacitors for domestic 3C power supply products, the company previously mainly supplied charging head manufacturers. Since 2019, the company's major customers have made major breakthroughs in direct supply, and its share has continued to increase, making it the core beneficiary target for charging power improvement. In addition, the company is also actively expanding markets such as notebook power supplies, which will further open up room for growth in consumer products. MLPC products have been in reserve for many years and are expected to exceed expectations under the trend of autonomy and control. The company's MLPC products have been mass-produced since 2017, initially mainly in the digital currency industry. The digital currency industry declined in 2018, and growth slowed down. However, as a core component in the fields of laptops, servers, etc., MLPC is currently dominated by Panasonic, with a domestic import ratio of over 90%. In 2019, downstream customers' awareness of autonomy and control increased markedly, and the company and major customers jointly promoted the acceleration of implementation. We judge that a breakthrough is expected in 2020. Investment suggestion: In order to increase the core benefit target of fast charging power, the company's 2019 Q4 performance exceeds expectations and indicates the start of a new boom cycle. We expect the company's net profit for 2019-21 to be 3.3/4.4/550 million yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.85/1.12/1.38 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 32/24/19 times, with a “buy” rating. Risk warning: Low expectations for the popularity of high-power fast charging, low expectations for direct procurement share from major customers, low expectations for smartphone shipments
艾华集团(603989):快充大功率时代核心受益标的 新成长周期启动
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