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新北洋(002376)2019年业绩快报点评:业绩边际改善 底部标的迎拐点

國信證券 ·  Feb 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The 2019 performance was in line with expectations. Q4 revenue reversed the declining trend. The company released the 2019 performance report on the evening of February 25. The company achieved total operating income of 2,470 billion yuan (-6.27%) and net profit of 332 million yuan (-12.73%) for the whole year. The company's total operating income and net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2019 decreased compared to the same period last year, mainly due to adjustments in orders from some major customers in the new retail industry and logistics industry. In addition, the company's maintenance personnel and hardware R&D expenses are rising rapidly, which is also putting pressure on profits. In 2019Q4, the company achieved quarterly revenue of 911 million yuan (+8.52%) and net profit of 113 million yuan (-5.48%), reversing the year-on-year decline in the previous three quarters, and achieved steady revenue growth. Revenue declined slightly due to order adjustments for major logistics/retail customers. Overall market development was in line with expectations throughout the year. The company's overall market expansion was in line with expectations, the financial business sector grew relatively rapidly due to the growth of related machine business, and the logistics business sector declined year-on-year due to the release of orders from customers such as Fengchao in the second quarter, with significant volume starting in the fourth quarter; the new retail business sector declined a lot due to factors such as falling orders from major customers, but the market promotion of new products such as smart microelectronics is worth looking forward to; the traditional business was partly affected by trade friction between China and the US, and still achieved overall stability. The performance of undervalued targets is expected to improve significantly. All business lines are ready to go. In 2020, the company's four business segments all have positive factors: the financial sector is in strong market demand, and businesses such as smart teller machines, TCR models, and sorting machines are facing opportunities; in the logistics sector, operators such as Fengchao and Express Express are expected to increase investment, while the company is rapidly promoting logistics automation business; the new retail sector will continue to promote retail lockers to large customers. New thermostatic cabinets are expected to be sold in batches, and smart microfinance business development will also be strengthened to strengthen current business trends; traditional business trends will be strengthened; Outside The market is gradually gaining strength and maintaining steady growth. Risk warning: The pandemic has had an impact on the company's delivery and acceptance; the investment pace of downstream customers may fall short of expectations. Investment advice: lower the profit forecast and maintain the “buy” rating. We adjusted our profit forecast based on the express report situation. We expect net profit from the mother in 2019-2021 to be 3.32/4.26/519 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -13/28/ 21%; diluted EPS = 0.50/0.64/0.78 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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