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双塔食品(002481)公司研究简报:十万吨豌豆加工项目试车成功 质量规模实现再跃迁

天風證券 ·  Feb 23, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Incident: On February 18, 2020, the 100,000-ton pea deep processing project developed, independently designed, and independently commissioned by the company was commissioned and successfully tested. The company overcame the impact of the epidemic and fully mobilized the company's own professional engineers in mechanical and electrical engineering, automation integration, technical technology, etc., and continued commissioning during the Spring Festival. After a month of trial and commissioning, the entire process was successfully completed and qualified products were produced. Comment: The world's first innovative dry process. The protein extraction rate continues to increase. On May 12, 2019, Shuangta Foods' 100,000 ton pea deep processing project officially started. The 100,000 ton pea deep processing project is an important part of Shuangta's “1+10” circular economy, and will continue to improve the company's progress in intelligence and standardization. The project uses the dry pea deep processing and production process independently developed by the company to physically separate and crush, extract pea essence, innovate and upgrade the process, deeply extract high value-added products such as pea protein and fiber, and increase the product recycling rate. This will effectively promote the industrialization of deep pea processing and enhance the market competitiveness of the enterprise. The product range continues to expand, leading high-end protein development companies to be supported by pea protein core technology. After the project is put into operation, the purity of pea protein will reach 88% or more, and functional protein types will be segmented into different fields to provide protein products with different properties and characteristics. The company has successfully developed “pea tissue protein” and “pea brushed protein”, which have successfully filled the domestic gap and enriched the company's product structure. The continuous expansion and innovation of protein categories is a new starting point for the company to become a high-end protein leader. Pea protein production capacity will be further expanded, and the market share is expected to be further increased. After the project is put into operation, the company's pea protein production capacity will reach about 70,000 tons per year, including 40,000 tons of high-end protein and 30,000 tons of low-end protein. High-end protein has a high gross margin, and the average price is about 3,000 US dollars/ton. Along with the expansion of high-end protein production capacity, the company's profitability is expected to increase further. Currently, the company accounts for about 30-40% of the world's pea protein production capacity. In the future, the company will continue to expand production capacity to meet market demand, further increase market share, and achieve simultaneous improvement in product quality and scale. Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 2,402/28.46/38.25 billion yuan in 2019-2021, up 0.95%/18.48%/34.4% year on year, and achieve net profit of 2.16/3.92/684 million yuan, up 135.55%/81.19%/74.45% year on year, and EPS of 0.17/0.32/0.55 yuan respectively. Considering the broad market and rapid development of the artificial meat industry, the company, as a leader in raw pea protein, has strong growth and is expected to continue with the continuous expansion of the 100,000 ton pea deep processing project and subsequent production capacity. Compared with the company's profit growth rate, it is relatively low and stable. We adjusted the valuation parameters and used the PEG valuation method to obtain a price-earnings ratio of 99X in 2020. At the same time, considering the company's average valuation level of 31X price-earnings ratio in 2020 and the company's unstable performance in the past few years, the company was given a price-earnings ratio of 50X in 2020, raised the target price to 16 yuan, and maintained the company's purchase rating. Risk warning: food safety risk; risk of raw material price fluctuations; protein sales falling short of expectations

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