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岭南股份(002717):拟定增缓解资金压力 微传播发力网红经济

國泰君安 ·  Feb 24, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings. Factors such as PPP regulation and deleveraging have made financing difficult and expensive in the garden industry. The company actively slowed down engineering business and increased its cash flow management efforts, downgraded and predicted the company's EPS in 2019-21 to 0.31/0.34/0.38 yuan (originally 0.65/0.85/1.03 yuan) growth rate -39/10/ 12%; considering recent policy support such as increased risk appetites/financial environment benefits and refinancing, etc., the target price was 7.76 yuan, corresponding to 22.8/20.4 times PE in 2020/21. Maintain an increase in holdings. The proposed increase will facilitate the smooth progress of ongoing projects and reduce the debt ratio. 1) On February 23, the company disclosed a fixed increase plan. It plans to raise no more than 1.22 billion yuan from no more than 35 specific investors, which will be used to promote and supplement ongoing projects ($350 million); the issue price should not be lower than 80% of the average stock trading price for the 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark date; the number of issued shares should not exceed 30% of the total share capital, or 460 million shares; 2) the actual controller's shareholding ratio after the fixed increase is about 25.8% (33.6% before the fixed increase); 3) the fixed increase will facilitate the smooth implementation of the company's ongoing high-quality EPC projects and optimize the capital structure ( (The debt ratio at the end of 2019Q3 is 72.8%), reducing financial risk and improving the ability to withstand risks. Driven by ecological environment and cultural tourism, microcommunication, which has a stake in the new third board company, plans to boost the influencer economy, and Hengrun hopes to spin-off and go public. 1) The company focuses on the two major industries of ecological environment+cultural tourism. Currently, the ecological environment business prioritizes the EPC style, achieving steady operation through refined management/enhanced repayment work; 2) The water and water environment management business is progressing steadily, hoping to build a comprehensive global water service operator; 3) The cultural tourism business is centered on subsidiaries Hengrun and Demaghi; Hengrun focuses on the R&D/design/production/integration of immersive amusement equipment systems; the company previously announced Hengrun's shareholding reform, or spin-off and promotion of profit Valuation; 4) The company's participation in the new third board MCN The company MicroCommunications (approximately 22% of shares) is mainly engaged in Internet self-media marketing and media business. Benefiting from the influencer economy, it will boost the live e-commerce sector, with a net profit of 110 million yuan (+29%) in 2018. Catalysts: The smooth progress of fixed growth, the shift in the capital environment to easing, the introduction of PPP regulations, etc. Risk alerts: capital easing shifts to austerity, new business development falls short of expectations, etc.

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