The product line is rich and has the ability of sustainable growth. The company focuses on the R & D and sales of innovative drugs in the three major areas of antiviral, cancer and fatty liver diseases, and is now on the market with 14 drugs in the product pipeline.
Among them, Danorivir is the first product on the market, and it is also the first domestic DAA drug for hepatitis C.
The second product, Lavi, is being declared for listing and is expected to go on sale in the first half of 2020, which will bring new increments to the company. According to the progress of research and development, it is expected that a new drug will be put on the market every 1-2 years, supporting the company's continued growth.
Two drugs are under development, which may be effective against novel coronavirus. Since January 2020, there has been an outbreak of coronavirus, and many domestic enterprises are actively looking for effective drugs. The company announced that clinical trials of ASC09 compound tablets and ritonavir for patients with novel coronavirus infection initiated by medical institutions and researchers have been carried out in Wuhan and Zhejiang respectively, which may become effective anti-novel coronavirus drugs. In addition, the company's first imitation drug, ritonavir, is in the stage of listing, which is included in the "diagnosis and treatment Program for pneumonia infected by novel coronavirus (trial fourth Edition)".
New drugs for liver disease, the first batch of innovative drugs in major diseases. The PD-L1 developed by the company in cooperation with Corning Jerry is used in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. the drug is expected to achieve the clinical cure of hepatitis B. At present, PD-L1 has been approved to enter the clinical II phase, and preliminary trial results are expected in mid-2020. There are about 3000 million Nash patients in China, and the company has the world's first oral FASN inhibitor for the treatment of NASH. Phase 1b clinical trials show that the drug can reduce liver new fat synthesis by 24% Mel 73%, and has excellent lipid-lowering effect. At present, the project is in the clinical stage of Ⅱ, and it is the fastest-growing new NASH drug in China.
Profit forecast and valuation: it is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2019 to 2021 is-0.03,0.09 and-0.06 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is-120.7X/-44.1X/-59.1X. There is a lack of specific drugs in the domestic liver disease market. As one of the few companies in the forefront of liver disease drug research and development, the company has considerable potential in the future. We use the DCF model to estimate that the present value of all the company's product pipelines is 2.55 billion yuan. There is still 3 billion yuan in cash in the company's account. On February 13, the company's market capitalization was 4.2 billion yuan, and its share price was at an all-time low. The listing of lavedavir in 2020, and the clinical results of PD-L1 and ASC40, could be a catalyst for share prices. Cover for the first time and give a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1, due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's declared products and products in clinical trials may be delayed; 2, many of the company's drugs under research are complete innovation targets, with the risk of failure; 3, affected by the price reduction of hepatitis C DAA drugs, the performance of the company's products sold may be lower than expected.