Relying on the core technology of Tsinghua University, focusing on the production of star light sensors, Tsinghua University was established in November 2015. In December 2016, Tsinghua University increased its capital to Tianyin at a price of 13.65 million yuan with 12 intellectual property rights and held 47.64% equity. Among them, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, vice president of Tsinghua University, domestic micro-nano satellite and star sensor leader you Zheng academician and his scientific research team jointly own 33.35% of the company. Realize the interest binding between the company and the technology backbone.
Tianyin StarCraft is the first commercially operated space optical sensor company in China, focusing on optical sensors for high-precision attitude determination, especially space star sensors. Attitude control system is one of the most critical subsystems of the satellite. According to Aerospace Defense News, OneWeb Satellite selected the top three top subcontractors in 2016, namely, MDA of Canada, Sodern of France and Teledyne Defense of the UK (Teledyne Microwave). Among them, Sodern is the international supplier of star photosensitive sensors, which also shows its key.
Tianyin interstellar products have been used in high-resolution remote sensing satellites, such as NS-1/2, Jilin No. 1 Video 01-12 smart imaging satellites, Shanghai micro-high-resolution micro-nano satellites and other on-orbit satellites, and actively expand the new growth of Sha Tianyi, Shenzhen Dongfang Red Sea, Shanghai Micro Satellite Engineering Center and other customers. According to the 18-year annual report, the application of Tianyin interstellar products in China's first state-led "Hongyan" 5G low-orbit communication constellation marks a good beginning for Tianyin interstellar products in the construction of 5G low-orbit satellite constellations that are about to rise at home and abroad.
The international star sensor technology research began in the 1950s and has gone through three stages of development. The third generation star sensor appeared after the 1990s. The representative products include A-STR star sensor developed by Gelileoavionica in Italy, AstroAPS star sensor in Jean Optronik in Germany and so on. The research on star-sensitive technology in China originated after 1980. As an industry leader, Tsinghua University leads the world in the performance of its research and development products. Under the premise that the volume and mass of its nano-star sensor NST-4 is much smaller than that of the same foreign products, its performance can still be comparable.
According to the CubeSatShop website, the price of a sun sensor is about 6000-12000 euros (4.6-92000 yuan), and the price of a nano-star sensor NST-1 is 80000 euros (618000 yuan). For a new type of sensor, the unit price may be more than one million. Considering the cost-effective advantage of domestic products, the unit price is expected to be around 30-500000.
In 18 years, the company accounted for 62% of the domestic satellite market and participated in the international market. according to the 2018 annual report, the company's star photosensitive sensor has a 62% domestic market share, considering that its competitors 502 are mainly high-orbit satellites such as Beidou. Tianyin Interstellar's market share in the field of micro-satellites may reach 80%.
According to the 2019 mid-term report and 2018 annual report, in the global market, the company's products have been applied to MITRE atmospheric exploration satellites in the United States and Alpha global multimedia satellites in Europe, and have participated in the ladder quotation of One-Web in the United States. As aerospace products need in-orbit satellite operation data, it is one of the few enterprises in the world, and its products have high cost-effective advantages. Considering the low cost demand of satellite constellation construction in the future, its potential market share may be about 20%.
It is estimated that the potential market space may be at 2.5 billion yuan. We will continue to pay attention to the market expansion. We calculate the market space of the star sensor as follows:
1) in the domestic market, according to the depth of the space Internet released earlier, taking into account the existing plans for the construction of 842 satellites for the national team, such as Hongyan, Hongyun, Xingyun and Sky phenomena, as well as 1684 constellations built by Galaxy, Jiutian, Tencent and other companies, a total of 2526. According to the fact that a single satellite requires 1 star photosensitive sensor (usually 1-2), the value of a single satellite is 400000. Based on the fact that the domestic market share of Tianyin Interstellar may reach 80%, it is estimated that the market space will increase by 2500% to 80% * 400000 = 800 million yuan.
2) in the international market, at present, incomplete statistics show that the construction scale of foreign constellations has reached 17380. According to the 20% market share of Tianyin Interstellar, and the value of foreign products may be relatively higher, the potential market space is 1738020% 500,000 = 1.738 billion yuan.
3) in addition, the design life of small satellites is often 5-7 years, so the update and maintenance market will not be considered for the time being.
Although the scale of Tianyin interstellar mass is still small at present, in the long run, the industrialization of satellites and their applications is one of the key areas of civil-military integration issued by the State Council in document 2017 91, which will fully benefit from the policy support of civil-military integration. the construction of domestic space, space and earth integrated information network system and the development of international commercial aerospace.
Investment suggestion: the company relies on Tianyin StarCraft, the international leader in star sensor technology, will directly benefit from the global commercial aerospace development process, and the performance is flexible. In addition, centering on Huaqing Ruida to accelerate the transformation of military electronics, the company has successively acquired information analysis technology to achieve the depth of the industrial chain, and added new radar overall business through the acquisition of Lexin of the University of Technology. It is expected that with the national defense information construction, new products continue to shape and release volume, military electronics business will maintain rapid growth. We expect the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 to be 1.41,1.83 and 265 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding valuation of 39, 30 and 21 times respectively, maintaining a "buy-B" rating.
Risk hint: Leo satellite constellation construction pace is not as expected; military electronic components business orders are slow
