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慈文传媒(002343):2019业绩预计扭亏 关注疫情对项目推进的影响

中金公司 ·  Feb 2, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Predicting 2019 performance to profit, the company released the 2019 performance forecast: It is estimated that net profit of 1.60 to 210 million yuan in 2019 will turn loss into profit (loss of 1,094 million yuan in the same period last year), which is basically in line with our expectations. Focus on key dramas and C-side premium content confirm revenue, and performance reverses losses as scheduled. The company's 4Q19 net profit is estimated to be 0.73 to 123 million yuan. We judge that it is mainly due to confirmed distribution revenue from projects such as the online broadcast drama “Glorious Times” and the online movie “The Great Earthquake”. Among them, “Glorious Times” premiered simultaneously on iQiyi, Tencent Video, Jiangsu Satellite TV, and Beijing Satellite TV in October 2019, and the online movie “The Great Earthquake” was launched on iQiyi's platform in September 2019. The latter topped iQiyi's September online movie box office list with a monthly grossing of over 15 million yuan. There are plenty of project reserves in 2020, but the progress of new projects is variable under the influence of the pandemic. The company has many dramas such as “Tianyakeke,” “Purple River,” “Airport,” and “Cicada Cicada,” etc., which are expected to be launched one after another. However, due to the recent outbreak of the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, the Television Production Committee and the Actors Committee of the China Federation of Radio and Television Social Organizations issued a notice on January 31 requesting that film and television projects stop filming during the epidemic prevention and control period. We have noticed that “One River of Water” and “Trident” produced by the company have already been defeated, and there are no projects currently being filmed. However, in the context of the entire industry suspending filming, we expect that the progress of the company's pending projects may be delayed. We need to pay close attention to the impact of the pandemic on the pace of project confirmation throughout the year. Valuation and recommendations We keep the company's 2019 profit forecast of 196 million yuan unchanged. Considering that the epidemic continues to develop, its impact on the film and television industry and the company's business progress is still difficult to reliably predict. Currently, we keep the company's net profit forecast of 270 million yuan in 2020 unchanged, and introduced a net profit forecast of 320 million yuan for 2021. The current stock price corresponds to 2020/2021 19/16 times P/E. Maintaining an outperforming industry rating and target price of 11.40 yuan, corresponding to 20 times P/E in 2020, there is 4.2% room for increase from the current stock price. As the impact of the risk epidemic worsened, key projects fell short of expectations; supervision was further tightened.

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