The epidemic of COVID-19 at the beginning of 2020 had a certain impact on centralized work in enterprises and centralized education in schools, but at the same time, it also greatly increased the demand for telecommuting and distance education. As the leader of enterprise cloud communications, the company has long worked in the areas of telephone / video conferencing, corporate live broadcast, corporate email and other areas, and is expected to benefit from the core. We predict that the company's homing net profit in 2019, 2020, and 2021 will be 1.68, 2.10, and 249 million, corresponding to PE, which is several times that of 51-41-34. We give the 2632020 45 times valuation, corresponding to the target price of 7.2 yuan, for the first time to cover the "overweight" rating.
Enterprise cloud communication is still in a period of rapid development, and the demand for distance education and telemedicine has increased greatly after COVID-19 's epidemic. Over the past two decades, the company has focused on corporate communications, working in the fields of corporate mailboxes, teleconferencing, video conferencing and corporate live broadcasting, covering finance, education, e-commerce, aviation and so on. After the COVID-19 epidemic, the company's teleconference and videoconferencing business has greatly increased, and the usage after the Spring Festival has more than doubled compared with before. Due to the relatively low penetration rate of cloud communications among domestic enterprises, it is expected that the cloud video industry will usher in a greater development, and the industry space will be doubled.
The core city IDC is on the golden track due to the surge in traffic, and domestic enterprises go out to sea to help cross-border communications. The company set up Shanghai Naisheng through a joint venture with NTT Com Asia, a leading global communications company, to cut into the field of IDC/ cloud computing, with 1000 cabinets in the first phase and 3000 cabinets planned for the second phase. NTT COM has high-quality Japanese corporate resources, so the company's IDC can get a premium above the market. In 2018, the company acquired all the shares of Risheng Technology and Hong Kong I-ACCESS respectively to build cross-border communication capabilities. The company's cross-border business has the characteristics of high gross margin and high net profit, and we expect the compound growth rate in the next few years to be about 22%, maintaining a relatively rapid growth.
The company strives to become an ethnic Chinese operator, and overseas Chinese business blossoms more often. There are a large number of overseas Chinese, the company relies on cross-border business, and the company's italk Global is committed to becoming an overseas operator providing services for ethnic Chinese. With the compound growth of about 6% in the number of international students and Chinese, we expect the demand for Chinese movies and TV dramas, variety shows and personal communications between China and the United States to continue to grow in North America, and the company's IPTV business has a bright future. In addition, the company has obtained the scarce MVNO license of Chinese companies in North America, and customers travelling between China and the United States can use the American package and the Chinese package with a single SIM card, which is expected to grow greatly with the increase in the number of people travelling between China and the United States.
Risk factors: domestic giants enter the enterprise cloud communications, IDC expansion resources are limited, Sino-US trade friction.
Investment suggestion: the main growth drivers of the company in the future will be "Enterprise Cloud Communications", "International Communications" and "Mobile resale". We predict that the net return profit in 2019, 2020 and 2021 will be 168 million, 210 million and 249 million respectively, corresponding to the PE of 51-41-34. We give the company's 2020 target PE 45 times, corresponding to the target price of 7.2RMB, and give it an "overweight" rating for the first time.