Introduction to this report: We recommend that Baiaotai's reference valuation range is between 0%-9%, corresponding to the price of 32.71 yuan to 33.36 yuan.
Summary:
On January 23, 2020, the actual quotation center position of Ruisong Technology, a science and technology innovation board company, dropped below the 5% quota, and the market entered the stage of information validity and low price competition among institutions. Considering the market's downward game behavior after price fixing, it is recommended that Baiaotai's price ranking for the February 6 inquiry be considered downward at the 9% level.
Based on the overall consideration, it is estimated that the price range for the Biaotai inquiry on February 6 will be in the 0%-9% range, corresponding to 32.71 yuan - 33.36 yuan.
Biotech focuses on the development of innovative drugs and biosimilar drugs to treat tumors, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, and other major diseases that endanger human life or health. According to the Frost & Sullivan report, the scale of biopharmaceuticals in China is expected to reach 1.3 trillion yuan in 2030; the global scale of biosimilar drugs is 7.2 billion US dollars in 2018 and is expected to reach 1,644 US dollars in 2030. China's size will increase from 1.6 billion yuan in 2018 to 58.9 billion yuan in 2030. The company has not yet generated revenue. Currently, the company has 1 product approved for marketing. There are 4, 1, and 4 products in phase I, II, and III clinical research stages, respectively. Of these, 3 are biosimilar drugs and 6 are innovative drugs. The company has prepared 11 ongoing research projects for tumor immunotherapy, autoimmune diseases, cardiovascular diseases, etc. In the future, the company will accelerate the process of product industrialization and marketization, achieve the marketing and sale of various drugs under development, and focus on research and development of innovative drugs and biosimilar drugs.
According to the market capitalization and product line overview of listed companies, we chose Fuhong Hanlin (2696.HK) as a comparable company. Biotai and Fuhong Hanlin had the same number of products approved for listing and products in phase II and III clinical research stages. However, Baiaotai only had 4 products in phase I clinical research, while Fuhong Hanlin has 5 products, and Fuhong Hanlin's product HLX01 (Hanlikang) was commercialized earlier and there are more varieties for clinical use. Therefore, based on Fuhong Hanlin's market value, we give Baiaotai a certain discount. Calculating its estimated total share capital after issuance does not exceed 414.08 million shares, the estimated market value after issuance is 135-165 billion yuan, and the corresponding issue price range is 32.71-3995 yuan.
Risk warning: (1) The actual pricing center is gradually moving downward, and be wary of rigidly excluding the risk of 10% higher prices and the secondary game behavior on the day of market quotations. (2) The drug development and marketing process fell short of expectations.