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康斯特(300445):检测设备龙头成长逻辑不断验证 持续推荐

中信建投證券 ·  Jan 19, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Incident The Company announced its 2019 performance forecast. In 2019, the company expects to achieve revenue of 283-292 million yuan, an increase of 18%-22% year on year, and expected net profit of 0.7 to 85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%-15%. Revenue growth is in line with expectations, and net profit growth is slightly lower than expected. Brief review (1) New product expansion is smooth, and high R&D investment and high growth in financial expenses have slightly dragged down net profit. In 2019, the company's R&D investment continued to grow at a high rate, with revenue from R&D investment accounting for close to 20%, an increase of 2pct over the same period in 2018. At the same time, due to changes in the US dollar exchange rate and falling interest on bank time deposits, financial expenses during the reporting period increased 60% year-on-year. Regardless of the above two factors, the company's net profit continued to grow steadily as scheduled. (2) The international market has a strong ability to transfer costs, and the decline in growth rate is mainly affected by overall trade. Affected by tariff increases, the company's ability to transfer products to the international market is strong. The decline in the growth rate in the international market is mainly affected by the overall trade environment. (3) The expansion of new products is smooth, the company's growth logic continues to be verified, and high research and development is increasing new products, and future growth can be expected. The company's new product temperature series products increased 50% year on year, progressing smoothly, indicating that as the company's leading testing equipment, its products have a strong ability to expand horizontally, and the growth logic of technology and channel reuse has been continuously verified: technologically, the company has high technical multiplicity of different types of testing equipment, and the company's brand has been recognized by customers. We believe that the company's above advantages have provided a good background for equipment manufacturers to grow; the company's R&D revenue in 2019 accounted for close to 20% for the company's subsequent launch of new products Laying the foundation. (4) Overall, we believe that the continued steady growth in the company's revenue and the continued high growth of new products are a continuous verification of the company's “growth” logic; high R&D investment has laid the foundation for the company's subsequent launch of new products. We believe that after a long period of technological accumulation, the company, as a leading enterprise in high-end testing equipment and high-end instruments in China, has accumulated enough moats and is already comparable to international leaders; with the gradual expansion of production capacity, the company's manufacturing and sales processes will be continuously sorted out and adjusted to adapt to the company's growth, and continue to approach the international leader in terms of volume. (5) Investment suggestions: The company's revenue for 2019-2021 is expected to be 292.28, 361.23, and 436.69 million yuan, up 21.53%, 23.59%, 20.89% year on year, and net profit in 2019-2021 of 82.14, 106.78, and 129.21 million yuan, up 11%, 29.8%, and 21% year on year, corresponding to PE 33.2, 25.31, and 20.92 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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