Items:
The company issued a performance forecast for 2019, with an estimated profit of 801 million-942 million yuan, an increase of 3601.77% over the same period last year. 4252.61%.
Comments:
ETC construction drives the growth of the company's performance. In 2019, the company is expected to achieve a net profit of 8.01-942 million yuan, an increase of 3601.77% 4252.61% over the same period last year. The growth in performance is mainly due to the substantial increase in demand for OBU and RSU equipment under the vigorous promotion of national policies. As a leader in the field of ETC, the company's sales of related products are growing rapidly.
The consumption scene extends to provide a broader space for ETC applications, and the company has outstanding advantages. Under the background of the rapid popularity of ETC, the application scenario of ETC payment is expected to extend to car parking, on-road parking, gas stations, car beauty and other car consumption scenarios. OBU will also enter the pre-installation option from July 2020. As cars use urban roads and parking lots more frequently than highways, the huge market demand will bring greater development opportunities and broad development space for the company.
5G business lays the foundation for vehicle networking, and V2X opens up room for long-term growth. With the landing of 5G technology, the vehicle networking market continues to heat up. The company actively participates in V2X industrial ecological construction and product research and development, and has formed a full-line V2X product system covering roadside units and vehicle terminals. As the leader of the intelligent vehicle-road collaborative technology and equipment industry research center, the company actively participates in and guides the formulation of industry standards, and has established a good cooperative relationship with upstream and downstream enterprises of the industry. And the company's V2X products have been deployed in national demonstration areas and urban open roads, with the full start of V2X construction, the company is expected to achieve faster development.
Investment suggestion: we are optimistic about the extension of ETC consumption scene and the broad opportunities brought by V2X construction. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2019 to 2021 is 843 million, 1.006 billion and 1.158 billion, corresponding to 11 times, 9 times and 8 times of PE. With reference to the valuation and historical valuation of comparable companies such as Wanji Technology, Gao Xinxing and Qianfang Technology, the company is comprehensively given 13 times PE in 2020, corresponding to the target price of 108.1 yuan, giving a "strong push" rating for the first time.
Risk hint: ETC demand is declining; V2X is not as good as expected.