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苏宁环球(000718):土储优厚且现金流稳定 典型“小而美”房企

招商證券 ·  Dec 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

The company's core highlights are: a. Rich and high-quality land reserves (extremely profitable), low interest-bearing debt, and stable cash flow; b. The margin of safety is remarkable, and the current market value is about 45% off NAV; c. The company actively gives back to shareholders. The company has repurchased 453 million yuan in '18, paid out about 868 million yuan (85% dividend rate), and a repurchase amount of 547 million yuan in '19. The potential dividend rate corresponding to a 50% dividend rate in '19 has also exceeded 5%. Furthermore, the new business is progressing carefully and steadily, with little capital consumption. Maintain the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating, with a target price of 4.94 yuan/share (corresponding to a 25% discount on NAV). (1) Land reserves are abundant and of high quality. Profitability is extremely strong due to the low floor price of land acquisition many years ago and half of the land reserves enjoyed tax benefits. In the past two years, the company's sales volume has generally remained at a scale of 3 to 4 billion yuan, no new land has been acquired, and settlement profit has remained at 1 to 1.2 billion yuan. As of 2019H1, the company's unfinished construction surface area was about 3.2 million square meters (100% equity ratio), corresponding to an unfinished value of about 58 billion yuan. Structurally, Nanjing/Wuhu/Shanghai accounted for 68%/19%/6% (construction surface size) respectively. Among them, Nanjing Venice Water City alone accounted for 52% of the construction surface. According to the sales volume of 18 years, the total value of the goods could be developed for more than 10 years, and land storage was abundant; moreover, land reserves were obtained many years ago. Floor prices were low, and the Nanjing Venice Water City plot benefited from tax revenue at the time Preferential policies. The tax increase rate for the land sold is relatively low. In recent years The rising housing price trend has driven the company's gross settlement margin/net profit margin to continue to improve. The comprehensive net interest rate in 2018 was as high as 30%. It is expected that this high profitability will continue. (2) “Seek progress through stability” to promote industrial transformation and upgrading in an orderly manner. a. In the cultural and sports industry, the industrial chain layout has been initially completed. Specifically, the Cultural Heritage Group is actively promoting the construction of a comprehensive art platform and is beginning to take shape; the Suning Art Museum cluster effect has been highlighted; Hongyi Culture has positioned itself as a media agency for film, television, culture, and entertainment; its artists have adopted variety shows, and will form an international men's group. b. In the medical and aesthetic industry, efforts are being made to build and upgrade the positioning of the Suya Medical and Aesthetic brand, and to adjust and improve the business strategy as appropriate. Currently, it has about 5 stores, which are still in the cultivation stage. There are slight losses in the short term, but they are still manageable. (3) The amount of interest-bearing debt is small, and the financial structure is extremely stable. As of the end of the third quarter, the company's interest-bearing debt was about 3 billion yuan, an increase of 900 million yuan over the end of last year (mainly long-term loans); the company had cash on hand of about 2.3 billion yuan, a roughly decrease of 600 million yuan from the end of last year. This led to a net debt ratio of 9% in 19Q3 compared to the end of 18, but it was still at a very low level in the industry; at the end of the third quarter, the cash guarantee ratio for immediate interest-bearing debt was 2.7 times, and the company's financial structure was extremely stable. Maintain the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating, with a target price of 4.94 yuan/share. The company's core highlights are: a. Rich and high-quality land reserves (extremely profitable), low interest-bearing debt, and stable cash flow; b. The margin of safety is remarkable. The company's unsettled value of nearly 60 billion dollars, assuming an average net settlement interest rate of about 28%, is discounted based on 8-10 years of development, and considering the compound increase in housing prices of 4% per year, it can generally contribute to the assessment of value added 12 billion yuan, compounded by net equity assets of nearly 7.8 billion yuan, corresponding to NAV of about 20 billion yuan; c. The company is actively giving back about 45% of NAV; c. Shareholders, the company's 18-year repurchase amount 453 million yuan, dividend of about $868 million (dividend rate 85%), and repurchase amount of $547 million in '19. Assuming that total repurchases and dividend payments in '19 remain at the level of 18 years, this means that the dividend rate for '19 has reached 68%. Even if the dividend rate falls to 50%, the potential dividend rate has already exceeded 5%. Furthermore, the new business is progressing carefully and steadily, with little capital consumption. The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.37, 0.39, and 0.40 yuan/share, and the corresponding PE is 10.1X, 9.7X, and 9.2X respectively, maintaining the “Highly Recommended - A” investment rating, and the target price is 4.94 yuan/share (corresponding to the 25% NAV discount). Risk warning: The transformation effect falls short of expectations, and the dividend rate falls short of expectations.

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