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德联集团(002666):汽车精细化学品龙头 新能源业务有望再造一个“德联”

Deutsche Union Group (002666): the leading new energy business of automotive fine chemicals is expected to create a "Deutsche Union".

光大證券 ·  Jan 12, 2020 00:00  · Researches

In-depth cooperation with chemical giants, high-quality customer structure. The company is the leader in the domestic automotive chemical raw materials and chemical products industry, and has long maintained in-depth cooperation with giant suppliers in the chemical industry, such as BASF in Germany, Dow DuPont in the United States, Averton in the United States, BP in the United Kingdom, and so on. Cover domestic mainstream joint ventures and independent brand mainframe factories. At the same time, it has opened up new car-building forces such as Tesla, Inc., NIO Inc. Automobile and Baiteng Automobile.

Everbright car clock runs to the recovery time zone, the company's performance in the leading parts industry hit bottom and rebounded.

As the leader of the industry segment, the company benefits from the stable competition pattern and high-quality customer structure, and the revenue growth rate is better than the passenger car sales growth rate. It is expected that with the upswing in car demand, the company's gross profit margin is expected to hit bottom and pick up. The company reported a 30.2% increase in net profit in the three quarters of 2019, and the leading parts industry has hit bottom and rebounded, which is expected to benefit from the repair of automobile plate valuation.

The popularity of electric cars will accelerate in 2022, and it is expected to create a "German Union". The proportion of new energy vehicle sales is expected to reach 10% in 2022 and begin to accelerate, and the proportion of new energy vehicle sales in 2025 is close to 25%. The incremental market scale of viscose products driven by the volume of new energy vehicles in 2025 is close to 7.5 billion.

The company's revenue from fine chemicals in 2018 is about 2.74 billion, and the business is expected to open up the company's growth space and recreate a "Deutsche Union".

Join hands with industrial capital to lay out the automobile "new four modernizations", the management increases the confidence. At present, the automobile industry is on the eve of the opening of a new Jugla cycle, and the company actively responds to industry changes through equity investment, laying out automotive electronics, new energy vehicles, automotive aftermarket and other fields, which is expected to take the lead before the establishment of new industrial trends, give full play to the current customer advantages, and develop incremental business. As of July 31, 2019, the company's senior executives increased their holdings of the company's shares by 13.7712 million yuan, demonstrating management's confidence in the company's long-term development and recognition of the company's stock investment value.

Valuation and rating: at present, Everbright Automotive clock has run to the recovery time zone, at this stage, the automotive sector valuation is more certain to improve. As a leading company in the automotive parts segment, the company's performance has reached the bottom of the auto parts industry. With the recovery of the industry, the company's revenue growth rate and gross profit margin have risen, and the improvement of new energy vehicle penetration has opened the company's medium-and long-term growth space. We predict that the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 will be 1.9 billion, 2.4 billion, and the corresponding EPS will be 0.25, 0.32, 0.41 yuan. We give the company a target price of 7.50 yuan at one time PEG, which is 23 times higher than the 2019 PE in 2020. Cover for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.

Risk hint: the recovery of the automobile market is not as expected; the gross profit margin is lower than expected due to the rising cost of materials; and the volume of viscose products is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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