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物产中大(600704)深度报告:供应链集成服务的引领者

浙商證券 ·  Jan 9, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Expanding upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the scale is expected to continue to grow. The company's supply chain integration services are the main contributor to revenue and profit. Among them, metals are the largest sector in the supply chain. The company expands the scale of services, reduces cycle fluctuations, and enhances profitability by expanding upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. It is expected that in the next 3 years, the country's crude steel production compound annual growth rate is expected to exceed 5%, and the company's share of steel sales will continue to increase. In March 2019, the company obtained the qualification for non-state trade and import of crude oil, and it is expected that the oil industry chain will expand upstream. The compound annual growth rate of the chemical sector is expected to reach 15% in the next 3 years. Financial services are support, and high-end industries nurture and innovate the central financial sector to serve integrated supply chain businesses, mainly including leasing, futures, finance companies, and pawnbroking services. The company uses a combination of futures and current to lock in supply and marketing prices to reduce cyclical risks in the bulk supply chain. The establishment of finance companies is conducive to the further improvement of capital management capabilities and the reduction of financing costs. High-end industry is the center of cultivation and innovation, and medicine, health, and environmentally friendly energy are the two sectors that the company focuses on cultivating. It is expected that they will collaborate with existing projects and grow into new profitable growth points. Various financing channels effectively reduce the cost of comprehensive financing. The company's main financing methods include loans under bank credit, debt issuance, fixed increases, etc. As of the first half of 2019, the total amount of credit granted by banks was about 102.2 billion yuan, of which the unused credit lines were about 67.2 billion yuan, and the credit lines granted were sufficient. In November 2019, the company completed a non-public offering project. The actual total capital raised was 3,815 billion yuan. The company's cash flow and balance sheet are expected to improve. The company will also issue asset securitization products to achieve the goals of revitalizing existing assets, speeding up capital turnover, reducing balance ratio, and broadening financing channels. It has an advantage in the field of supply chain integration services. In 2019-2021, the company's net profit is 2,738 billion yuan, 3.190 billion yuan, and 3.618 billion yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were 14.20%, 16.51%, and 13.42%, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 9.75 times, 8.36 times, and 7.37 times, respectively. The company is a leader in integrated supply chain services in China and is committed to building an internationally competitive industrial ecosystem organizer. It has advantages in terms of capital costs, risk control, management mechanisms, etc., and has a high cash dividend ratio and dividend rate, giving it a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the cost of comprehensive financing has increased more than expected, and the increase in employee remuneration has exceeded expectations.

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