This report is read as follows:
With the specialization of easy-to-open lid and metal can manufacturing, the permeability and application field of metal packaging are expected to continue to improve; both inside and outside the company, capacity is gradually released, structure optimization, synergy appears, and overseas market expansion contributes new performance growth points.
Main points of investment:
The target price is 24.36 yuan, and the overweight rating is given for the first time. Considering that the company actively seizes the opportunities of epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, promotes product line optimization, production integration and customer coordination, the layout of internal production capacity continues, and enhanced competitiveness in the international market brings new profit growth points, we estimate that the company's EPS will be 0.73 PE in 2019-2021, with an increase of 108.46%, 60.99%, 31.29%, and a target price of 24.36 yuan, corresponding to about 33 times PE in 2020.
The company is the industry's leading supplier of easy-to-open metal packaging products, easy-to-open lid and metal can manufacturing professional division of labor, metal packaging permeability and application field is expected to continue to improve. Easy-to-open lid and metal can manufacturing specialization, with the use of metal packaging in the food and beverage industry and the increase of per capita consumption, the scale of metal packaging will continue to increase. Well-known brand FMCG production enterprises tend to independently choose easy-to-open lid and metal can suppliers, high-quality leading enterprises will significantly benefit from the improvement of market concentration.
Internal repair and external expansion accelerate industry integration, capacity release, structural optimization, and synergy. The market believes that: the market concentration of the FMCG industry is not high, the cost transfer capacity is weak, it is difficult to achieve sustained and stable growth and a higher valuation level; the demand for downstream consumer goods is under pressure, and the company's new production capacity is difficult to digest smoothly. However, we believe that the increase in the concentration of the downstream FMCG and can industry will force the supply of easy-to-open covers to concentrate to high-quality enterprises, and the company has begun to accelerate industry integration through built-in production capacity and extension mergers and acquisitions. the enhancement of discourse power and bargaining power will promote the upward repair of profitability, and there is room for price increases in the future. The company has a relatively complete metal packaging product system and a wide customer base, benefiting from the export tax rebate policy dividend, the company enjoys the global demand market space, the orderly release of new production capacity will significantly improve performance.
Catalyst: the synergy effect of M & An integration is better than expected, overseas market expansion is accelerated, and raw material prices are down.
Risk hints: raw material price fluctuation risk, M & An integration risk, other material packaging competition risk