The current situation of the company
In December 2019, the company completed a container throughput of 2.13 million TEUs, an increase of 5.6% over the same period last year, and a cargo throughput of 61.86 million tons, an increase of 7.8% over the same period last year.
In 2019, the company completed container throughput of 29.61 million TEUs (fast statistics, which may be slightly different from the final actual data), an increase of 6.0% year-on-year (7.6% growth in 2018), and cargo throughput of 812.24 million tons. 4.7% year-on-year growth (7.7% growth in 2018). Overall, throughput growth slowed slightly in 2019, but to a limited extent.
Comment
Container hub port, the throughput growth rate is faster than the whole country. As the second largest port in the country in terms of container throughput, the company's container throughput increased by 6% in 2019 compared with the same period last year, still faster than the national average of coastal ports (5%), mainly due to the hinterland economy and the company's hub port status. The company undertakes the supply of goods and expands its hinterland in a variety of ways. In the first half of 2019, the container volume of branch lines and sea-rail intermodal transport increased by 20.3% and 46.7% respectively compared with the same period last year (China report data).
Looking forward, considering the trend of trade negotiations, we believe that the container business is expected to maintain a relatively stable performance.
Valuation proposal
We maintain the 2019 net profit forecast of 3.408 billion yuan (including one-time land income, deducting the non-net profit forecast of 2.896 billion yuan), maintain the 2020 net profit forecast of 3.099 billion yuan, and introduce the 2021 profit forecast of 3.293 billion yuan. The current share price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 times 2020. Maintain a neutral rating and a target price of 4.40 yuan, corresponding to 19 times 2020 price-to-earnings ratio, which has 13% upside compared to the current stock price.
Risk.
The growth rate of throughput was lower than expected, and the loading and unloading rate declined.