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博通集成(603068):交通部2019年ETC任务超额完成 公司有望受益

海通證券 ·  Dec 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  Industry events: The Ministry of Transport's website announced on December 20, 2019. In the week of December 20, 5.742 million ETC customers were added nationwide (an average of 824,400 per day), completing 375.99% of the weekly tasks. This year, 11.1788 million ETC distribution tasks were added. As of December 18, a total of 111.5576 million had been completed, accounting for 101.25%. As of December 18, the total number of ETC customers nationwide reached 192.2344 million, completing 100.72% of the total distribution target of 19.085556 million. Currently, the average number of new ETC users per day is still at a high level, and the Ministry of Transport's ETC promotion tasks have been exceeded, so we judge that the company will continue to benefit in 19Q4. We mentioned in our report “ETC drives revenue growth in 19Q2 while providing strong guidance for 19Q3”, “We estimate that the average number of ETC users increased by around 690,000 per day from August 14 to 27, far exceeding the daily average of 46,000 in 19Q1. We estimate that the number of new ETC users added in 19Q3 is expected to increase significantly from month to month.” Based on the number of ETC users recently announced by the Ministry of Transport, the current average daily completion volume is about 820,400, which is still at a high level compared to 19Q3, and as of December 18, the Ministry of Transport completed 100.72% of the total distribution target. We believe that the company will continue to benefit from the rapid growth in the number of ETC users in 19Q4. The company mass-produces TWS chips, which is expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the TWS industry in the future. According to Trendforce forecasts, TWS is expected to ship 78 million units in 2019 and 110 million units in 2020. We judge that TWS can quickly launch with convenient control experience and sound effects in the short term, and can be expected to become an entry point for voice interaction in the long term. We are optimistic about the TWS industry chain for a long time. The company disclosed in “SSE e-Interactive” that “wireless audio is one of the company's main products. The company's TWS products have been mass-produced and are now mainly supplied to overseas brand customers”. We judge that the company's TWS chip products are expected to benefit from the rapid growth of the TWS industry in the future. Profit forecast. We estimate that the company's EPS for 2019 to 2021 will be 2.19, 3.22, and 4.13 yuan/share, respectively. We gave the company PE (2019) 50 to 57x, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 109.50 to 124.83 yuan per share, and gave the company PS (2019) a range of 12.00 to 13.50x, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 110.16 to 123.93 yuan per share, carefully considering our belief that the company's reasonable value range is 109.50 to 123.93 yuan/share, maintaining a “superior to the market” rating. Risk warning. New competitors may join the ETC chip industry in the future.

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