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物产中大(600704):供应链集成服务的引领者

浙商證券 ·  Dec 27, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The main investment points extend upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and trade volume is expected to continue to grow. The company's supply chain integration services are the main contributor to revenue and profit. Among them, steel is the sector with the largest trade volume. By expanding upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the company expands the scale of trade, reduces cyclical fluctuations, and enhances profitability. It is expected that in the next 3 years, the country's crude steel production compound annual growth rate is expected to reach 5%, and the company's share of steel sales will continue to increase. In March '19, the company obtained the qualification to import crude oil from non-state trade, and is expected to expand to the top of the oil industry chain. The compound annual growth rate of chemical trade volume is expected to remain at 20% in the next 3 years. Financial services are support, and high-end industries complement the financial sector to serve integrated supply chain businesses, mainly including leasing, futures, finance companies, and pawnbroking services. The company uses a combination of futures and current to lock in supply and marketing prices to reduce cyclical risks in bulk trade. The establishment of finance companies is conducive to the further improvement of capital management capabilities and the reduction of financing costs. High-end industry is the center of cultivation and innovation, and medicine, health, and environmentally friendly energy are the two sectors that the company focuses on cultivating. It is expected that they will collaborate with existing projects and grow into new profitable growth points. Various financing channels effectively reduce the cost of comprehensive financing. The company's main financing methods include loans under bank credit, debt issuance, fixed increases, etc. As of the first half of '19, the total amount of credit granted by banks was about 102.2 billion yuan, of which the unused credit lines were about 67.2 billion yuan, and the credit lines granted were sufficient. In November '19, the company completed a non-public offering project. The actual total capital raised was 3,815 billion yuan. The company's cash flow and balance sheet are expected to improve. The company will also issue asset securitization products to achieve the goals of revitalizing existing assets, speeding up capital turnover, reducing balance ratio, and broadening financing channels. It has advantages in the field of supply chain integration services. It is estimated that in 19-21, the company's net profit was 2,728 billion yuan, 3.178 billion yuan, and 3.610 billion yuan respectively. The year-on-year growth rates were 13.79%, 16.51%, and 13.58%, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 9.58 times, 8.22 times, and 7.24 times, respectively. The company is committed to building an integrated supply chain service provider with advantages in comprehensive financing costs, risk control, and management mechanisms. Compared with similar companies listed on A-shares, the company's PEG is lower, and the cash dividend ratio and dividend ratio are higher, giving it a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the cost of comprehensive financing has increased more than expected, and the increase in employee remuneration has exceeded expectations.

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