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奥园健康(03662.HK):不改轻资产运营 积极拓展大健康板块

第一上海 ·  Dec 23, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incident of actively expanding the health sector without changing asset-light operations: On December 12, 2019, the company issued an announcement stating that the company used 82 million yuan to purchase a 50-year plot in Fengxian district of Shanghai covering an area of about 30,000 square meters and a construction area of about 76,000 square meters to develop into a health care and medical beauty industry complex. On December 19, the company's supplementary announcement stated that the company is positioned as an asset-light service operator. The future development of the diversified big health industry will also be carried out in an asset-light model. The local block plan will cooperate with China Aoyuan, and China Aoyuan will be responsible for project development and construction. The company will provide asset-light services such as property management, investment promotion, and big health industry operation services for the project, and will also charge operating expenses such as management and brand export at reasonable prices. Do not change the asset-light operating model and actively expand the big health sector: 1) First, the original intention of the company's purchase of a plot in Fengxian District of Shanghai was to value the superior geographical location of this project. It is a learning base for the national health, medical and aesthetic industries, which will help obtain more resources for the big health industry. Also known as “Oriental Beauty Valley”, Fengxian District continues to attract a number of large direct sellers of cosmetics and personal care products and many other well-known makeup brands. It is also the only place in China that has won the title of “China's cosmetics industry capital”. 2) Second, considering that the company has always positioned itself in an asset-light mode of operation, subsequent companies will cooperate with real estate developers. Real estate developers will be responsible for all investment and development costs (including land payments) in the early stages of the project, and may plan to return 70%-75% of the land payment (total land price of about 82 million yuan, floor price only about 1,079 yuan/square meter) to the company (in other words, the company only invested 2025 million to 24.6 million yuan in the early stages), the company ultimately only holds 25%-30% of the project equity. After the project development is completed, the company will only be responsible for attracting subsequent investment, In the property management and major health industry operation service business, the company will enjoy 25%-30% of the long-term stable profit after the mature operation of the project. It operates in an asset-light model, with less upfront investment and a higher return. At the same time, the company can also enjoy room for asset appreciation in the future. As of mid-2019, the company has set up and operated two traditional Chinese medicine centers and a medical and aesthetic clinic in the properties it manages. Currently, the company is actively developing and expanding the health sector. Target price increased by HK$8.5, buying rating: We expect that the company's net profit will continue to rise in 2019-2021, with a compound growth rate of over 60%. In terms of valuation, using the segmented valuation method, the big health sector is still in the layout period and will not be considered for the time being. Regarding the property management sector, we believe that the performance growth of the property sector is high and there is a strong certainty, and the management area is steadily increasing. The management area is expected to increase by 50% to 15.6 million square meters throughout the year. Considering the sharp increase in the delivery area of new properties on the basis of a low base, the unit price of property management services is expected to maintain a steady increase in the unit price of property management services, and the volume and price of the basic property management business will rise rapidly to ensure that basic property income maintains a high growth trend. According to the estimated performance contribution of the property sector in 2020, PE will be given 20 times, and the corresponding property management valuation is 3.42 billion yuan. As for the commercial operation sector, as of December 2019, the company has opened 9-10 shopping malls, and has basically achieved the goal of opening 10 shopping malls throughout the year. Considering the uncertainty surrounding the expansion of shopping malls next year, it is estimated that the number of newly opened shopping malls will be lowered to 6-8 in 2020, but considering that in 2020 there will be quite a few shopping malls that have gone through a period of 2-3 years of cultivation, the rent level in 2020 is expected to increase significantly. In terms of valuation, we believe that the early market positioning and merchant recruitment services (which are one-time income) are not sustainable. We value the company's shopping mall operation capabilities more. Based on the sustainable performance contribution contributed by commercial operations and management business in 2020, we have given a target PE of 25 times. The corresponding valuation is about RMB 2.14 billion. The total target market value of the company is about HK$6.18 billion, and the corresponding stock price is about HK$8.5 billion, giving a buying rating.

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