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中恒电气(002364)公司点评:5G电源优势验证 HVDC龙头弹性可期

中泰證券 ·  Jan 8, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Incident: The company issued an announcement and became the winning candidate for “China Mobile's Centralized Procurement of Integrated Power Products from 2019 to 2020”, winning the bid of 5026/15781/31.17 million yuan in the first/second/third package, with a share of 19.57%/14.49%/17.39%, respectively, for a total of 239 million yuan. China Mobile's first 5G integrated power supply tender, and the top three shares verified the company's leading position. The tender project is China Mobile's centralized procurement of integrated power products from 2019 to 2020, including three packages of integrated 1kW, modular 2kW, and modular 3kW. The procurement quantities were 18948/29327/5598 units, totaling 58373 units; the procurement amounts were 337/13.50/200 million yuan, respectively, for a total of 1,887 billion yuan. The company won 5026/15781/31.17 million yuan for each of the three bids, with a share of 19.57%/14.49%/17.39%, for a total bid of 239 million yuan. The share ranked second, third, and third, respectively, in the first tier. This tender is China Mobile's first centralized procurement of 5G integrated power supplies. The company won the bid to verify the company's leading position in the 5G base station communication power supply field, and cooperation with communication operators is expected to further deepen. Large-scale deployment of 5G base stations has brought broad demand space, and communication power supply leaders have fully benefited. Since 2019, China's 5G commercialization has accelerated. According to data from Uehara Minister of Industry and Information Technology Li Yizhong's speech at the “Looking at the 2020 Finance Summit”, the country will build 6 million 5G base stations within 7 years, and the peak of construction will be in 2020-2021. We expect to build more than 700,000 base stations in 2020, and the space required for 5G base station communication power supply is expected to reach 7 billion yuan. Based on the results of this bid, based on a 10% share estimate, it is expected to bring the company more than 700 million related orders, and the company's overall revenue elasticity in 2018 can reach 71%. The company has been deeply involved in the field of communication power supplies for many years, and its first-mover advantage and customer advantages are prominent. It has launched integrated solutions for equipment energy integration, minimal energy efficiency, and 5G-PAD intelligent energy products for 5G base stations, which will fully benefit from the explosive growth in industry demand. We are deeply involved in electricity informatization to fully support comprehensive construction. The company actively lays out the energy Internet, promotes software and hardware integration and business collaboration. Using modern communication and IoT technology, the company relies on its subsidiary Zhongheng Borui's rich experience in the field of power informatization and the integrated energy Internet of Things platform to build a ubiquitous power IoT system ecosystem based on autonomous devices and integrating various partners. In the context of entering the comprehensive construction phase of the ubiquitous power Internet of Things in 2020, the company is expected to deeply participate in the construction of the ubiquitous platform layer (lean management) and application layer (integrated energy service, line loss monitoring) with Zhongheng Borui's qualification advantages and forward-looking layout results of the energy Internet. HVDC contributed to IDC, and the Panamanian system brought in additional performance. The company has been deeply involved in the field of communication power supplies for many years. It is a leader in high voltage DC power supply technology (HVDC). With the rapid expansion of distributed computing scenarios such as big data around the world, data center power supply demand has increased significantly. In November of this year, Ali Joint Company launched the IDC integrated power supply solution Panamanian System, which can drastically reduce distribution link costs and installation space. While consolidating its leading position in the HVDC field, it is expected to further increase its share in the large-scale IDC power supply field. Investment advice: The company is a domestic HVDC leader. It has obvious advantages in the field of communication base station power supply and IDC power supply solutions, and will fully benefit from 5G commercial acceleration and data scale expansion in the future; Zhongheng Borui has been deeply involved in power informatization for many years and has ubiquitous overall solution capabilities, and is expected to fully support the comprehensive promotion of ubiquitous use. We expect the company's net profit to mother in 2019-2021 to reach 1.09/1.84/249 million yuan, and EPS 0.19/0.33/0.44 yuan respectively, corresponding to the closing price of PE on January 7, 2020, which is 63.6/37.6/27.7 times, respectively, maintaining an increase rating. Risk warning: 5G base station construction falls short of expectations, IDC construction falls short of expectations, ubiquitous power IoT construction falls short of expectations

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