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岭南股份(002717):重视文旅传媒资产的价值重估

光大證券 ·  Jan 5, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company has gradually formed an ecological and cultural tourism dual-engine pattern: the company's main business is ecological business. In recent years, it has successively laid out cultural tourism media business through mergers and acquisitions, and initially formed a pattern of ecological and cultural tourism dual-engine driven business expansion (1H19 cultural tourism revenue and gross profit accounts for 5.0% and 11.6%, respectively). The value of cultural tourism media assets is expected to be revalued: the company's cultural tourism media business includes two directions: 1) “Culture +” business, with subsidiaries Hengrun Culture Group and Demaggi International Exhibition as core assets; 2) tourism investment and development business, which forms close collaboration with traditional ecological businesses. Major subsidiaries in the cultural tourism media sector performed well, and all exceeded their performance promises during the performance commitment period. On December 12, '19, the Securities Regulatory Commission issued “Certain Provisions on the Time of Domestic Listing of Listed Companies' Subsidiaries” (CSRC [2019] No. 27, hereinafter referred to as “Certain Provisions”), which clarifies the conditions, procedures and supervision of domestic spin-off and listing of listed companies' subsidiaries. Hengrun Culture Group and Demagi International Exhibition met the requirements of the “Certain Regulations” and met the requirements for domestic spin-off and listing. Moreover, they all meet the requirements of the Main Board, the Small and Medium Board, the GEM and the Science and Technology Innovation Board for companies to apply for listing. At the same time, the participating company MicroCommunications also met the requirements for independent listing on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. The independent listing of high-quality cultural tourism media assets is expected to bring about a revaluation. The worst of PPP has passed, and traditional business risks have been released: the company's revenue YoY for the first three quarters of '19 was -7.7%, with a year-on-year growth rate of -131.4pcts. After past high growth, revenue growth declined markedly in '19. It is mainly due to the phased pressure on the ecological business of traditional main businesses. In addition to some due to the postponement of fund-raising projects, we believe that the core is due to financial deleveraging, the difficulty of financing some PPP projects, and the company actively shrinks the pace of business expansion due to risk control reasons. From an industry perspective, the PPP management bank maintained a steady, moderate, and slow upward trend in 2019. It was determined that the pace of bank contraction was marginally slowing down, and “clearing” was gradually coming to an end. Furthermore, special bonds and insurance capital are expected to enter the PPP sector. We judge that the worst time for the PPP model is over. The company's traditional ecological business is strong, and future growth is still worth looking forward to. Pay attention to cultural tourism media asset value revaluation expectations and raise the rating to “buy”. We maintain our previous profit forecast. The company's net profit for 19-21 is estimated to be 4.7/5.1/590 million yuan, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to PE in '19 and '20, which is 17x and 16x, respectively. The company's traditional business is an ecological business, but the revenue and profit contributions of the cultural tourism media business cannot be ignored, and the core subsidiary of this business is expected to be spun off and listed, which is expected to drive value revaluation. Based on a comprehensive reference to the valuation situation of the company and the media industry, the company was given a 20-year 20x target PE, corresponding to a target price of 6.60 yuan, and raised to a “buy” rating. Risk warning: PPP policy, upward interest rate risk, merger and acquisition collaboration, and lower than expected project payback

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