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音飞储存(603066):高端货架龙头 业务布局日趋完善

華泰證券 ·  Dec 31, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  High-end shelf leaders, intelligent warehousing and operation businesses are expected to expand one after another. The company is the leader in high-end shelves in China. Intelligent warehousing is expected to develop rapidly, operations are beginning to take shape, and high-end shelves, intelligent storage system integration, and operation services are expected to form a tripod trend. We believe that with the gradual commencement of fund-raising projects to overcome production capacity bottlenecks, and the company's measures to expand channels and control costs, the company is expected to maintain a steady increase in revenue growth and a steady increase in market competitiveness. We expect the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 to be 97 million yuan, 117 million yuan and 140 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 0.32, 0.39, and 0.47 yuan, respectively. Referring to the comparable company's 2020 PE 20 times, giving the company 20 to 23 times PE in 2020, with a target price of 7.78 to 8.95 yuan, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Demand in the intelligent warehousing market is expected to be further released, and the company's system integration revenue share is expected to continue to rise. We believe that with the rapid development of China's logistics industry combined with the release of outsourcing demand in the manufacturing industry and trade circulation industry, the strategic position of intelligent warehousing will continue to strengthen. According to GGII, China's intelligent warehousing market is expected to reach 1975 billion yuan in 2023, and the compound growth rate for 18-23 is expected to reach 19.9%. In 2018, the company's automated three-dimensional storage system integration business accounted for 50% of revenue, and we expect it to rise to 63% by 2021. This move may increase the added value of the company's shelf products and the revenue level per unit shelf production capacity, and reduce the impact of fluctuations in raw material prices. The Ma'anshan base may be launched one after another in the first half of '20, which is expected to greatly increase the company's shelf production capacity. According to the company announcement 19-027, the company's annual capacity utilization rate was over 95% in 15-18. According to company announcements 18-065 and 19-044, the company plans to build an intelligent storage equipment production line in Ma'anshan, Anhui, with a total investment of 1 billion yuan. After delivery, it has a shelf capacity of 150,000 tons per year, increasing shelf production capacity by about double. With the significant expansion of production capacity, the company plans to introduce external distributors to expand channels to match sufficient incremental customers. The project is expected to achieve annual sales revenue of not less than 1 billion yuan after delivery. We believe that the expansion of production is expected to bring capacity guarantees to the growth of the company's intelligent warehousing system integration business and promote the continuous expansion of the company's intelligent warehousing business. The prototype of automated warehousing operation services is starting to provide 1) a shipper model based on traffic; 2) a landlord model that combines the importance of self-built logistics centers to provide asset-light warehousing operation service output; 3) provides warehousing automation equipment operation and maintenance services based on data collection and analysis, etc. In the future, operation services are expected to bring relatively more stable cash flow to the company and drive the development of the company's intelligent warehousing integration business. The layout is getting better, and the added value of the product continues to increase. The “increase in holdings” rating is given. As new production capacity is gradually put into operation in 2020, the company is expected to overcome production capacity bottlenecks, and the business layout is improving day by day. We expect the company's net profit in 2019-2021 to be 97 million yuan, 117 million yuan and 140 million yuan respectively, up 4.7%, 20.6%, and 19.9%, corresponding to EPS of 0.32, 0.39, 0.47 yuan, PE 24x/20x/16x, respectively. Considering that the company is the local leader in high-precision shelves, and the share of automated integration business is expected to continue to increase, it is expected to increase product premium capacity. At the same time, referring to the average PE valuation of similar companies in 2020, the 2020 PE valuation was 20 times that of Yinfei Storage, which gave a PE valuation of 20-23 times in 2020, with a target price of 7.78 to 8.95 yuan, giving it an “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: Macroeconomic growth falls short of expectations, capacity expansion is slower than expected, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate, and the pace of order confirmation fluctuates.

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