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锦江资本(02006.HK):扩张加快但是平均每间可供出租客房收入较弱 维持“中性“

國泰君安國際 ·  Dec 11, 2019 00:00  · Researches

In the third quarter of 2019, the net revenue of limited service hotels increased 3.0% year on year to RMB 4.139 billion. The adjusted net profit of the company's main operating subsidiaries increased by 22.1% year-on-year to RMB 441.5 million, which was better than our expectations, mainly due to a decrease of 0.5 percentage points in operating expenses to 85.9% year-on-year. We raised our adjusted gross operating profit forecasts for 2019 to 2021 by 6.9%, 4.1%, and 4.4%, respectively. The number of new hotels added by the company this year was higher than our expectations, so we raised our revenue forecasts for 2019 to 2021 by 1.2%, 1.8%, and 2.0%, respectively. We expect total revenue from 2019 to 2021 to be RMB 21 billion, RMB 21.8 billion, and RMB 23 billion, respectively, corresponding to growth rates of 1.9%, 3.8% and 5.3%, respectively. We expect adjusted total operating profit from 2019 to 2021 to be RMB 1.93 billion, RMB 1.95 billion and RMB 2.0 billion, respectively, corresponding to growth rates of 34.8%, 1.1% and 3.0%, respectively. We expect basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share from 2019 to 2021 to be RMB 0.135, RMB 0.139, and RMB 0.143, respectively, corresponding to growth rates of -1.1%, 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively. We raised the company's target price from HK$1.20 to HK$1.45 and maintained a “neutral” investment rating. Our target price is equivalent to 5.1 times the 2019 adjusted EV/EBITDA. Our valuation is relatively low, but considering the company's reliance on other non-operating income and earnings to increase operating profit and shareholder net profit, we think the lower valuation is reasonable. For example, in 2017 and 2018, the company's other revenue and earnings were RMB381 million and RMB433 million, equivalent to 50.1% and 56.8% of shareholder net profit, respectively.

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