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鹏鹞环保(300664)动态研究:水务稳步拓展 固废崭露头角

國海證券 ·  Dec 9, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: New orders are picking up significantly, and the water business is developing steadily in 2016-2018. On the one hand, the company's revenue and net profit fluctuated. On the one hand, it was affected by the government's repurchase of some sewage plants, and on the other hand, according to the macro and financing environment, the company actively contracted its front line and voluntarily abandoned some low-yield projects. In 2019, as PPP inventory removal gradually ended, the industry returned to rationality, and the company began to actively obtain high-quality projects. Since this year, the company has received projects such as Xiguazhou in Jingdezhen (80,000 tons/day), Honggutan in Nanchang (200,000 tons/day), Taihu New Town in Wuxi (150,000 tons/day), and the Harbin Urban Sewage Plant (150,000 tons/day), and there is a clear recovery trend in new orders. As of 2019Q3, the company's current monetary capital was 500 million yuan, and the balance ratio was only 39.95%. There is still plenty of room for financing, sufficient orders and sufficient capital, and the steady growth of the company's water business is guaranteed. The organic solid waste business has taken the lead, helping the company rise to the next level. While the company is based on the water business, it is also actively laying out the solid waste business. Introduce high-temperature fermentation technology for YM bacteria from Japan, join hands with Professor Shen Qirong's team at Nannong University, acquire Lianye Technology and Ma Sheng Environmental to improve the organic solid waste industry chain, utilize organic waste such as municipal sludge, food waste, straw, livestock and poultry manure as resources, and produce organic fertilizer, etc. Sludge projects currently in operation include Changchun (1100 tons/day), Fujian (150 tons/day), and Xinjiang (300 tons/day), with a total of 1,550 tons/day; kitchen projects include Jiangsu Chenjie (150 tons/day, put into operation), Bozhou (200 tons/day, under construction), and Yibin (200 tons/day, under construction). The organic solid waste business began to gain prominence and became one of the company's key business directions for future expansion, helping the company reach a new level. The Environmental Intelligent Manufacturing Park is about to be put into operation. The new performance highlights for high-end equipment began in 2018. The company invested 300 million yuan to build the Yixing Environmental Protection Equipment Intelligent Manufacturing Park. The project is expected to be put into operation by the end of this year and the beginning of next year. Yixing has more than 2,600 environmental protection enterprises and is known as the “hometown of environmental protection in China”, but the industry as a whole is scattered slightly. The company has built an intelligent manufacturing park and invested in some high-end equipment for small enterprises to use. The company provides processing and manufacturing services, which can improve the level of intelligence and standardization of environmental protection equipment manufacturing in Yixing City and promote the upgrading of the environmental protection industry in Yixing. On the other hand, the company invests in stainless steel prefabricated water plant production lines. Compared with traditional concrete structures, it has advantages such as low investment, short construction cycle, and small floor space. It can improve the intelligent level of the company's environmental protection equipment, help the company become a leader in the environmental equipment manufacturing industry, and add profit forecasts and investment ratings: maintaining the “increase” rating, the company's 2019-2021 EPS is expected to be 0.54, 0.71, and 0.86 yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current stock price PE of 22, 17, and 14 times, maintaining the company's “gain” rating. Risk warning: the risk of slow progress of the Smart Manufacturing Park project, the risk of project acquisition and progress falling short of expectations, the risk of a sharp increase in accounts receivable, the risk of slow progress of organic solid waste recycling projects, and the risk of macroeconomic downturn.

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