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枫叶教育(01317.HK):升级课程体系 业绩符合预期

興業證券 ·  Dec 1, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The main investment points maintain the “buy” rating and maintain the target price at HK$3.8. While the student structure adjustment is still ongoing: the company's overall revenue and profit in FY2019 are in line with expectations, and the new Maple Leaf World Curriculum System is expected to continue to enhance the admission rate of the company's prestigious schools and its appeal to international high schools. We expect the company's revenue for the 2020-2022 fiscal year to be RMB 18.0, 20.9 and RMB 2.41 billion (same below), with year-on-year increases of 14.7%, 16.0% and 15.2%, respectively; adjusted net profit is 7.8, 8.9 and 1.02 billion yuan, respectively, up 12.7%, 14.5% and 14.1% year-on-year respectively. Maintain the company's “buy” rating and maintain the target price of HK$3.8, which corresponds to 13, 12, and 10 times PE for the 2020-2022 fiscal year, respectively. FY2019 revenue growth is slowing, and tuition fees are the main source: in FY2019, the company recorded revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 670 bps; adjusted net profit of 690 million yuan, an increase of 16.5% year-on-year. Income splitting middle school fee income still dominates the mainstream, accounting for 84% of tuition revenue, an increase of 130 bps over the previous year. Revenue fell short of our expectations of 1%, and adjusted net profit was higher than our forecast of 0.2%. The adjusted net interest rate declined slightly: in fiscal year 2019, the company's adjusted net profit reached 690 million yuan, up 16.5% year on year, and adjusted net profit margin was 44%, down 70 bps year on year. The company adjusted the adjusted items for this fiscal year to dividend income from holding trading investments and payment by shares. Compared with FY2018, government subsidies and changes in the fair value of holdings and trading investments were reduced. The government subsidy for fiscal year 2019 was 8.45 million yuan, and the change in the fair value of financial assets measured in profit and loss was increased by 39.55 million yuan. Upgrading the international curriculum will gradually transition from the BC Curriculum International School in Canada to an international school certified by Cognia and UKNARIC: the company has completed the construction of the Maple Leaf World School curriculum system and will begin implementing a new curriculum system in the first year of high school in September 2020. The curriculum system uses the Maple Leaf High School curriculum as compulsory, and adds AP elective courses, leadership and creative thinking courses, world studies and academic English courses to optimize key content teaching and enhance the learning programs of ESL English non-native speakers. Currently, all 89 schools opened by Maple Leaf in China have become international schools certified by Cognia (Advanced), the world's largest school certification organization. The current improvement in the curriculum system is expected to further increase the company's admission rate to world-renowned schools and increase the appeal of students in the company's international high school curriculum. Risk warning: 1) changes in national education policy; 2) expansion processes such as company acquisitions and self-construction did not meet expectations; 3) student and parent satisfaction with teaching quality declined; 4) VIE structure policy risks.

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