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枫叶教育(01317.HK)公司点评:收入+17% 调后净利+17% 引入枫叶世界学校课程开启新航道

天風證券 ·  Dec 2, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  On November 28, 2019, Maple Leaf Education released the 2019 FY19 Annual Results Announcement (2018.09.01-2019.08.31). FY19 Maple Leaf Education's revenue was 1,570 billion yuan (same below), an increase of 17.1% over the previous year. Specifically, FY19's annual tuition revenue was 1,319 million yuan (84.0%), up 18.9% year on year; winter and summer revenue was 54 million yuan (3.4%), up 6.8% year on year; textbook revenue was 46 million yuan (2.9%), up 4.3% year on year; other revenue was 152 million yuan (9.7%), up 10.1% year on year. The increase in revenue from FY19 Maple Leaf Education is mainly due to an increase in the overall enrollment number of students. Meanwhile, the company announced the introduction of a new Maple Leaf World SchoolProgram (Maple Leaf World SchoolProgram, World School Curriculum”. The World School Curriculum will be implemented for 3 years starting in September 2020. According to the World School Curriculum, the company's high school BC curriculum in China will switch from the British Columbia curriculum to the Maple Leaf World School curriculum. The university's first batch of graduates of the World School Program will receive the Maple Leaf High School diploma in June 2023. The diploma is recognized by Cognia (formerly Advanc Ed), the world's largest certification body for world-renowned schools. The British Columbia Department of Education has officially agreed to cooperate with Maple Leaf during the transition period. After consulting with it, Maple Leaf is implementing this strategic shift. Additionally, Maple Leaf has discussed transition arrangements for world school curricula with university partners. Following meetings with major universities in Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Switzerland, and the Netherlands, these major universities confirmed their intention to continue to prioritize the admission of high school students from Maple Leaf in China. FY19's main business cost was $835 million, an increase of 16.5% over the previous year, mainly due to increases in teaching costs and depreciation and amortization of fixed assets. Specifically, the employee cost was 638 million yuan, an increase of 7.4% over the previous year, mainly due to the increase in the number of teachers and the increase in the average salary of FY19 teachers. The number of teachers increased from about 2,955 in FY18 to 3,433 in FY19, mainly due to the fact that 13 new schools opened in the 2018/2019 school year hired more teachers. The ratio of Maple Leaf teachers to students decreased slightly to 1:12 from 1:11 the previous year. Fixed depreciation and amortization was 81 million yuan, up 34.9% year on year; amortization of intangible assets was 0.7 billion yuan, up 534.1 percent year on year. Maintain profit forecasts and give buying ratings. Maple Leaf has achieved high-quality growth as a leader in international education, and its brand and experience accumulation combined with off-site expansion capabilities have achieved steady and rapid growth in performance. In the future, Maple Leaf still has room for nearly 1 times the number of people to grow without adding new schools. At the same time, its PPP asset-light model has matured, effectively reducing early investment in schools, thereby speeding up replication and reducing trade-offs, and positioning the middle class to achieve broad customer coverage. We expect the company's net profit for FY20-21 to be 820 million and 990 million, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 9x and 8x, respectively. Risk warning: The implementing regulations of the Civil Promotion Law have not yet been implemented, and enrollment falls short of expectations

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