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枫叶教育(1317.HK)FY19年报点评:净利润增长22% 逐步转型教育大区发展模式

光大證券 ·  Nov 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Performance was in line with expectations, and net profit increased 21.5% year over year. FY19 Maple Leaf Education's revenue was 1,570 million yuan (+17.1%), gross profit was 735 million yuan (+17.7%), net profit was 654 million yuan (+21.5%), and adjusted net profit was 690 million yuan (+16.5%). The adjusted EBITDA was $782 million (+25.7%), and cash on hand was $2,762 million. The gross profit margin was 46.8%, up 0.3 pcts year on year. The increase in gross margin was mainly due to the increase in the number of schools and the increase in the number of enrolled students. Profit adjustments are mainly dividend income of 497,000 yuan and share payments of 36.59 million yuan. FY19 added 13 new schools, with 41,200 students enrolled (+23.2%). FY19 has 95 schools, including 15 high schools, 24 middle schools, 25 elementary schools, 28 kindergartens, and 3 schools for children of expatriates. The number of registered students was 412,000 (+23.2%). Among them, there were 8155 students in high schools, 8841 in middle schools, 18,771 in elementary schools, 5096 in kindergartens, and 378 in schools for children of expatriates. School usage rate is 68.3% (+3.7%). The number of teachers increased from 2,955 at the end of the 2017/2018 school year to 3,433 at the end of the 2018/2019 school year. The Group is actively transforming the education region, and the number of schools has further increased. 1) The Group will develop from an independent school to an educational park and eventually transform into an educational region. The core is to speed up the establishment of a pyramid-shaped student structure and achieve a 12-year integrated education system. 2) Expand the number of students that can be accommodated on campus. It is expected that at the beginning of the 2020/2021 academic year, Wuhan will increase its student capacity by 1500. 3) Achieve further revenue growth by increasing school usage and increasing tuition fees. 4) New schools have been opened in many places at home and abroad to increase school capacity. The school capacity is expected to increase to 76800 in 2021. There is plenty of cash on hand, and the “buy” rating is maintained. FY19 has a bank balance and cash of $2,762 million, with plenty of cash on hand. We maintained our adjusted net profit forecast for 20-21 at $84/1.03 billion, up 28.66%/22.49% year-on-year respectively; the adjusted net profit forecast for the year 22 was $1,216 million. The corresponding adjusted EPS was HK$0.32/0.36/0.46, respectively, and the target price was HK$4.00, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: Decline in teaching quality, changes in education policy, and extension expansion strategies falling short of expectations.

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