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宜昌交运(002627):聚焦优势发力旅游 轻资运营以顺大势

國泰君安 ·  Nov 17, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: For the first time, coverage was given an “increase in holdings” rating, with a target price of 13.00 yuan. The market is concerned that the company's automobile sales business accounts for a relatively high share. As automobile sales decline, future growth will be limited, but we believe that as a high-quality local state-owned enterprise in Yichang, the company has unique local tourist attraction assets. Currently, the company is actively transforming and focusing on developing tourism business. With the injection of high-quality assets, the company's development is expected to reach a new level. It is estimated that the company's revenue for 2019-2021 will be 21.28, 24.21, and 2,552 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit of 1.72, 221, and 291 million yuan, corresponding to EPS of 0.52, 0.66, and 0.87 yuan. Combining the growth rate of comparable companies and our own, we gave a target price of 13.00 yuan, corresponding to 25 times PE in 2019, covering the “increased holdings” rating for the first time. High-quality state-owned enterprises have continued to develop steadily over the past few years. Looking at the company as a whole, there has been steady growth from 2011 to 2018. Among them, it achieved revenue of 1,997 billion yuan in 2018, a year-on-year decrease of 1.99%, and net profit of 57.3068 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 57.3068 million yuan, an increase of 32.99% over the previous year. In the first three quarters of 2019, the company's performance continued to maintain an upward trend, achieving revenue of 1,694 million yuan, an increase of 1.32% over the previous year; net profit of 109 million yuan, an increase of 23.29% over the previous year; and net profit of 98 million yuan after deducting non-return net profit of 98 million yuan, an increase of 65.09% over the previous year, a significant increase of 65.09% over the previous year. Yichang is blessed with unique tourism resources, and the company is actively transforming the tourism industry. As China enters the era of mass tourism, tourism has become an important domestic industry. The total revenue of the national tourism industry in 2018 was 5.97 trillion yuan, contributing 9.94 trillion yuan to the overall GDP, accounting for 11.04% of the total domestic GDP. Yichang Transportation is based in Yichang and has the core resources of “two dams and one gorge tour”. Supporting products include the Xiling Gorge Tour, the Three Gorges Lock Boat Lift Tour (which can lift a 3,000-ton ship directly, unique in the world), the Yangtze River Night Tour, and the Gaoxia Pinghu Tour (receiving 200,000 visitors in 2018). With the development of the tourism sector, the company's development is expected to reach a new level. Catalysts: Implementation of state-owned enterprise reform policies, potential integration of local tourism resources, expected risk warning: road passenger transport and tourism services traffic safety risks, increased competition in the tourism industry

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