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瑞丰高材(300243):产能释放开启 未来成长性强

財通證券 ·  Nov 4, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  The company released its three-quarter report. Price declines in volume led to a short-term decline in the company's performance. The company achieved operating income of 902 million yuan (YoY -16.97%) in the first three quarters and realized net profit of 57.74 million yuan (YoY -28.71%); of these, Q3 achieved operating income of 292 million yuan (YoY -14.58%); net profit of 13.54 million yuan (YoY -49.25%). The decline in performance was mainly due to: 1) falling sales prices due to a year-on-year decline in raw material prices; 2) Affected by falling demand, sales volume of Q3's main products declined compared to ACR; while MBS had complex processes and complex thresholds High, and supply is still in short supply, so the company plans to expand MBS production capacity. New projects have been put into operation one after another, which will contribute significantly to next year's performance. The first phase of the company's 40,000 tons/year MC impact modifier project (annual production of 20,000 tons) has recently been put into operation, and the second phase is expected to be put into operation by the end of March next year; the 20,000 ton epoxy chlorochloride (ECH) project is a co-production device for the MC project, which is expected to be put into operation by the end of March next year; the first phase of the 40,000-ton MBS impact modifier project (annual production of 20,000 tons) is expected to be put into operation by the end of March next year. After all of the above production capacity is put into production, the company's comprehensive production capacity will increase from the current 120,000 tons to 180,000 tons (70,000 tons of ACR, 50,000 tons of MBS, 40,000 tons of MC, 20,000 tons of epichlorohydrin). The company's product structure will be richer and more reasonable, and profitability is expected to reach a new level next year. MC impact modifiers are alternatives to CPE and are expected to benefit from the reshaping of the CPE industry. MC impact modifier is an alternative to traditional CPE (chlorinated polyethylene). It uses a more advanced acid phase process and advanced post-treatment technology, and has the characteristics of high quality, high yield and low consumption. Compared with the traditional CPE manufacturing process (high pollution, high energy consumption aqueous phase preparation process), it has significant environmental advantages. Since ASIA Chemical's production capacity of 170,000 tons of CPE was completely shut down at the end of October this year, CPE has strong expectations of price increases. The commissioning of the Ruifeng MC project will effectively make up for some of the industry's production capacity gaps, and will also bring new growth to the company's performance in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. Profit forecast and investment rating: As a leading company in the PVC additives industry segment, the company's application fields continue to expand and open up demand ceilings; production capacity such as MC, ECH, and MBS is expected to continue to be released, bringing high growth to the company. Maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating, affected by falling product prices and weak demand since this year, and new production capacity launch slightly later than expected, etc., we have adjusted our previous profit forecast and added a 2021 performance forecast. We expect the EPS for 19-21 to be 0.34, 0.67, and 0.78 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 23, 12, and 10 times. Risk warning: Production capacity investment falls short of expectations, raw material prices fluctuate greatly, and product prices fall.

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