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航新科技(300424)2019年三季报点评:拐点趋势进一步确认

世紀證券 ·  Oct 29, 2019 00:00  · Researches

1) Results for the first three quarters were in line with expectations. During the reporting period, the company achieved operating income of 971 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 95.95%; net profit to mother was 52.86 million yuan, an increase of 20.32% over the previous year. Among them, benefiting from the steady growth of the equipment development business and the expansion of the aviation maintenance business into overseas markets, the company's third-quarter revenue and net profit to mother were 403 million yuan and 2004 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 94.22% and 52.16%, respectively. 2) Leading indicators confirm a positive trend. The company's inventory at the end of the period was 537 million yuan, an increase of 20.7% over the second quarter and an increase of 170 million yuan over the previous year. The increase in the company's inventory is an increase in the equipment development and support business in product production. The model is to determine production based on sales, which will be converted into the company's revenue in the future. Advance payments at the end of the period were 67.67 million yuan, up 59.8% month-on-month and 31.44 million yuan year-on-year. Both of these leading indicators reached record highs in the company's history, with significant increases, further confirming the inflection point trend in performance. 3) Direct 20 officially announced the installation, and strengthened verification of the amount of downstream military aircraft to fill gaps. In terms of models, there is a serious shortage of 10-ton general purpose helicopters; in terms of quantity, it is conservatively estimated that our country has a military helicopter gap of 900. At the National Day military parade on the 70th anniversary of the founding of the nation, the Direct 20 (10-ton class utility helicopter) was officially unveiled, further verifying that military helicopters have entered an accelerated deployment cycle. 4) Supporting military aircraft gaps and upgrading informatization, the company's second-generation products will be launched. The company's second-generation product, the Helicopter Health and Usage Inspection System (HUMS), is a supporting equipment for military helicopter informatization upgrades. The market space is conservatively estimated at more than 900 million. The company HUMS has passed the first batch of technical certifications and will be installed in batches, calculated according to the first-generation product release rules, which is expected to bring the company an average incremental revenue of at least 100 million dollars. 5) Automatic inspection equipment enables civilian penetration and opens up room for growth. The company's automatic testing equipment was previously limited to sales in the military field. On October 28, the company won the bid for the 14 million automatic airborne electronic component testing platform project of Shanghai Aircraft Manufacturing Co., Ltd., which, on the one hand, broke the monopoly of foreign manufacturers in the field of automatic testing systems for airborne equipment of civil aviation, and on the other hand, penetrated the company's automatic inspection equipment into the domestic civil sector, opening up new room for growth. 6) Acquire overseas Magnetic MRO AS (MMRO) companies to enhance the company's performance. MMRO is a high-quality Estonian company with good profitability. The merger and acquisition of MMRO will improve the company's aviation maintenance business layout on the one hand, and help the company expand overseas markets on the other. MMRO's revenue in '18 was 590 million and net profit was 0.3 million, which is more than double the scale of the company's original business. After full consolidation in '19, the company's performance will be further enhanced. 7) Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company's EPS for 2019-2021 is estimated to be 0.30 yuan/0.35 yuan/0.53 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-earnings ratios of 55 times, 48 times, and 31 times, respectively. Considering that the company's second-generation product, HUMS, is expected to be released, automatic test equipment can be penetrated by civilian use, and MMRO mergers and acquisitions will enhance the company's performance and maintain an “gain” rating. 8) Risk warning: military helicopter deployment falls short of expectations; military procurement falls short of expectations; civil aviation maintenance competition intensifies.

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