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广日股份(600894):Q3业绩略低于预期 长期估值有望修复

西南證券 ·  Oct 31, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Performance summary: The company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters of 2019 achieved revenue of 4.53 billion yuan (+11.9%), net profit of 360 million yuan (+38.9%), net profit of 360 million yuan (+38.9%), and deducted non-net profit of 340 million yuan (+63.7%). Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 1.73 billion yuan (+10.8%), net profit of 0.8 billion yuan (-34.8%), net profit of 0.8 billion yuan (-26.2%) after deducting non-net profit of 0.8 billion yuan (-26.2%). Earnings rebounded in 2019, and investment returns fluctuated in the short term. The company's net profit and net profit deducted in 2018 were 130 million yuan (-66.4%) and 500 million yuan (-84.9%) respectively. The net profit growth rate for the first three quarters of 2019 was 38.9%, net profit growth rate after deduction was 63.7%, and profit recovered relatively quickly. Due to the low base in 2018Q4, there is no worry about high performance growth in 2019. 2019Q3's investment income from joint ventures and joint ventures was $0.6 billion, less than $0.2 billion compared to the same period last year, which was the main influencing factor in Q3 performance fluctuations. The company achieved a gross profit ratio of 13.8% (+0.1pp) and a period expense ratio of 12.6% (-0.1pp) in the first three quarters of 2019, including a sales expense ratio of 2.7% (-0.3pp), a management expense ratio of 10.2% (-0.1pp), and a financial expense ratio of -0.4% (+0.3pp). Asset quality is high, and long-term valuations are expected to improve. Hitachi Elevator, which has a stake in the company, is the leading elevator company in China, contributing to the company's main source of profit and safeguarding the company's long-term profits. The company's own-brand elevator business is leading in scale in China, and has been developing well over a long period of time. As of the end of the third quarter of 2019, the company's monetary capital and financial management amount exceeded 2.5 billion yuan, long-term and short-term loans totaled less than 100 million yuan, and the cash flow of the elevator business was also relatively good. Currently, the company's PB is less than 0.9 times, and it is expected to be repaired in the long term. Profit forecasts and investment advice. It is estimated that the company's net profit in 2019-2021 will be 4.6/49/5.3 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.53/0.57/0.62 yuan, respectively, and corresponding PE valuations of 14/13/12 times, respectively, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: elevator demand or unanticipated risk, profitability or unanticipated risk, return on investment or unanticipated risk.

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