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天音控股( 000829)2019年三季报点评:净利润增速符合预期 未来利润或将持续改善

民生證券 ·  Oct 1, 2019 00:00  · Researches

  1. Event Overview The company announced its 2019 three-quarter report on October 29: The first three quarters achieved revenue of 37.297 billion yuan, an increase of 21.19% over last year, and net profit of 305.496 million yuan, an increase of 257.27% over last year. Quarterly view: The company achieved revenue of 14.194 billion yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 30.59% over the previous year, and net profit of 17.8819 million yuan, an increase of 1258.25% over the previous year. The company's performance forecast predicts net profit of 15.33 million yuan to 22.33 million yuan for the third quarter, an increase of 1061.36% to 1591.67% over the previous year. The figures for the third quarter report are in line with forecast expectations. 2. Analysis and judgment on the revenue side: Revenue for the third quarter was 14.194 billion yuan, up 30.59% year on year. The company's third quarter revenue was 14.194 billion yuan, up 30.59% year on year. Looking at business segmentation, the mobile phone industry is still the core driving factor. From distribution to retail, Tianyin has built an omni-channel network for the 3C electronics industry. The channel expansion of TO-B SKUs and the addition of TO-C SKUs have contributed greatly to revenue scale and growth. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of online and offline integration, Tianyin is gradually building a strong supply chain system. Although the lottery industry accounts for a small share of revenue, the growth rate is stable. As the only company in the industry to enter both sports and lottery, domestic business has achieved steady growth. At the same time, Tianyin has continued to expand its product line, target the rapidly growing international market, target the rapidly growing international market, and target IGT, moving from a technology company to a technology company, and has expanded its business to five overseas countries. Profit side: The net profit margin was 0.13%, a sharp increase of 940pct over last year, mainly due to the expansion of the new business model and the sharp increase in net profit of the mother, which is expected to be mainly due to the steady expansion of the new business model and the adjustment of the product agency structure. Looking at the split, the expense ratio declined sharply: the company's gross profit margin for the third quarter was 3.32%, down 12.38pct year on year; sales expense ratio was 1.43%, down 34.00pct year; management expense ratio was 0.56%, down 2.52 pct year on year; R&D expense ratio was 0.1%, down 42.05pct year on year; and financial expense ratio was 0.6%, down 37.66 pct year on year. 5G is in sight, and innovation can be expected. Profits are expected to continue to improve the company's “1+N” industrial development layout with “one network, one platform” as the axis, continue to deepen the “1+N” industrial development layout, establish a new retail system through the construction of an “offline network and online platform,” and strive to grow into a leading enterprise in China's industrial Internet. 2019 is the first year of 5G. With the maturity and implementation of 5G technology, Tianyin is expected to usher in a 2-3 year shipping growth cycle, and the mobile phone business is expected to achieve relatively rapid growth. At the same time, the company's development in the fields of e-cigarettes, lottery tickets, etc., and the transformation from a technology company to a technology company will provide new possibilities and continuous impetus for future development. 3. Investment recommendations We forecast that the company's net profit for 2019-2020 will be 175 million yuan, 298 million yuan, and 393 million yuan respectively, and EPS will be 0.17 yuan, 0.29 yuan, and 0.38 yuan respectively. Corresponding to current stock prices PE is 35X, 20X, and 15X. With the maturity and implementation of 5G technology, Tianyin is expected to enter a 2-3 year shipping growth cycle, covering the “careful recommendation” rating for the first time. 4. Risk warning: lottery policy risks; mobile phone sales fall short of expectations; lottery business progress falls short of expectations.

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