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物产中大(600704):业绩持续高增长 供应链龙头优势突显

中信建投證券 ·  Oct 30, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Incidents: CUHK released its 2019 three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of 2019, CUHK achieved operating income of 252,458 billion yuan, an increase of 39.397 billion yuan over the same period last year, an increase of 18.49% over the same period last year; and realized net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 2,373 billion yuan, an increase of 29.96% over the previous year. During the reporting period, the company achieved a total earnings of 0.491 yuan per share, with a corresponding weighted average ROE of 11.43%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points over the previous year. Furthermore, in the third quarter of this year, the company achieved operating income of 92.164 billion yuan, an increase of 12.32% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 771 million yuan, an increase of 33.83% over the previous year. Summary Revenue maintained a high growth rate, and falling financial expenses boosted performance. As the leader in supply chain integration services in the Yangtze River Delta region, the scale of business continued to expand during the reporting period. The company's revenue level increased 18.49% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year, reaching 252,458 billion yuan, and maintained a high growth rate. Furthermore, on the cost side, on the one hand, the company has taken the initiative to increase the proportion of bonds issued by seizing favorable opportunities with low interest rates; on the other hand, through operations such as rediscounting, interbank investment, and electronic bill acceptance, etc., it has not only strengthened its liquidity management capabilities, but also further reduced financing costs. The company's financial expenses for the first three quarters of this year were 957 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.95%. Relying on two major platforms, the leading position in the industry is stabilizing. Currently, the company relies on the “smart supply chain logistics system” and the “characteristic supply chain financial system” to continuously reduce supply chain integration service costs, increase profit margins, and gradually consolidate its position as a leader in integrated domestic supply chain services. Currently, the company mainly engages in integrated supply chain services in the four categories of metals, energy, chemicals, automobiles and post-service services. Among them, metals, energy, and chemicals all rank among the top three in the country in terms of revenue, and the overall strength of the automobile service business ranks eighth in terms of overall strength. Judging from the scope of the company's business layout, the company has now gathered more than 3,000 resource suppliers upstream, connected more than 2,000 logistics and processing service providers in the midstream, and served more than 30,000 terminal enterprise customers downstream. The strong one is Hengqiang. The company's market share is expected to gradually increase in the future due to the high demand for capital in the supply chain integration service industry, so the company's financing costs and financing capacity are key factors that determine its profitability. As the leader of supply chain integration services in the Yangtze River Delta region, the actual controller is the Zhejiang State Assets Administration Commission, and it has stronger capabilities compared to other smaller supply chain enterprises in terms of financing costs and financing capacity. In the context of the current “three go, one drop and one supplement” policy, interest rates may gradually rise. We believe that the pressure on smaller supply chain companies to survive will increase further, and the company's market share is expected to gradually increase. Maintaining the company's holdings growth rating, we believe that the company will continue to rely on its “circulation 4.0” concept to further expand upstream and downstream networks in the future. Moreover, as the leader in integrated supply chain services in the Yangtze River Delta region, the company has a more obvious advantage in terms of financing, and its business scale is expected to gradually increase in the future. We expect that in 2019-2021, the company's revenue levels will reach 330.423 billion yuan, 361,904 billion yuan, and 397.76 billion yuan respectively. The net profit attributable to the owners of the parent company is 2,830 billion yuan, 3.408 billion yuan, and 4.242 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.66 yuan, 0.79 yuan, and 0.99 yuan, maintaining a large “increase in holdings” rating in commodity production.

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