Incident: The company disclosed its three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of the year 19, the company achieved revenue of 5.506 billion yuan, an increase of 16.52% over the previous year; net profit of 495 million yuan was realized, an increase of 191.70% over the previous year. The comments on this are as follows: The company achieved net profit of 240 million yuan per quarter in the third quarter, an increase of 64.4% over the previous year, which is basically the same as the performance of the first half of the year. The company disclosed its three-quarter report. In the first three quarters of '19, the company achieved revenue of 5.506 billion yuan, an increase of 16.52% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 495 million yuan, an increase of 191.70% over the previous year. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 2.103 billion yuan, an increase of 14.54% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 240 million yuan, an increase of 64.4% over the previous year. Hubei Province's Q3 hydropower is poor, and the company's thermal power generation is growing at a high rate. The company's Q3 feed-in capacity increased 14.8% year on year, maintaining a rapid increase of 16.4% in the first half of the year. This is mainly due to the 6.5% growth rate of electricity consumption in Hubei Province in Q3, which is basically the same as the Q2 electricity consumption growth rate (6.7%), maintaining rapid growth. However, Hubei's Q3 hydropower generation growth rate was -12.5%, worse than the Q2 -3.0% growth rate. Hubei Q3 electricity and coal prices fell month-on-month, reducing unit fuel costs. The average price index for electricity and coal without tax in Hubei Province in the third quarter of this year was 520.69 yuan/ton, down 1.6% from Q2. Judging from last year's base situation, the average 2018Q2, 2018Q3, and 2018Q4 Hubei electricity and coal price indices were 534.25, 547.73, and 554.68 yuan/ton, respectively, and gradually increased; therefore, the year-on-year decline in coal prices in 2019Q3 was even more obvious. The company's Q3 single-quarter gross margin was 21.5%. Assuming that the volume of feed-in electricity in Q4 increased 13% year on year and the unit price of coal in Q4 decreased slightly by 0.2% compared to Q3, the gross profit for Q4 was 240 million yuan, an increase of 96 million yuan over the previous year. Performance was quickly released due to a high increase in electricity, and it was upgraded to a highly recommended rating. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2019 to 2021 will reach 6.0, 6.7 billion yuan, and 730 million yuan respectively, corresponding price-earnings ratios of 9.0, 8.1, and 7.5 times. The company's current net market ratio is 1.46 times. The company's performance in the third quarter was excellent. The opening of the Haoji Railway to ease the supply of coal, and the growth in electricity volume is sufficient to support the high increase in performance. Risk warning: the level of feed-in electricity prices may fall short of expectations, coal prices may rise beyond expectations, etc.
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长源电力(000966)公司动态点评:电量增速助力业绩高增 动态市盈率优势显著
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