The company released its quarterly report on October 22, 2019, with revenue of 685 million during the reporting period, an increase of 30.24% over the same period last year, and net profit of 77 million yuan, an increase of 24.34% over the same period last year.
Affected by the growth rate of Torasemi, the profit growth rate of Q3 in 2019 was 24 million yuan in the third quarter, an increase of 14.3% over the same period last year. The growth rate of Q3 in 2019 was lower than that of Q1-Q3 (24.34%), and decreased by 22.5% compared with the previous quarter. This is mainly due to the fact that the main product of the company, Torasemide injection, has greatly increased its market share due to the suspension of production of Nanjing Youke, and the sales growth rate has gradually declined. We expect sales of torasemide injection Q3 to increase by about 15% year-on-year.
Heavyweight injections have been approved one after another, and the subsequent product reserves are rich, and the API is expected to contribute more profits. at present, the sales of many kinds of injections in the company still maintain a high growth rate, such as tegacycline is expected to grow by 80% compared with the same period last year. Cefsidone is expected to grow by 65%, cytarabine is expected to grow by 30%. In terms of new varieties, the company has been approved for production of vinpocetine injection, and the first imitation variety of randilol injection has been completed. It is expected that it will be approved at the beginning of next year, and in addition, varieties such as Lifashaban, non-busta and entecavir are also expected to be approved next year. The company has a rich reserve of injection products, and the evaluation of the consistency of existing varieties is carried out in an orderly manner. The growth potential of the follow-up preparation sector is full.
In terms of API, the subsidiary Zhenjiang Derui, as an internal and external API base, not only supplies APIs to the company, but also has export business. Derui has steadily contributed profits since it was put into production in early 2019, and it is expected that Q3 will contribute profits of ~ 20 million yuan. with the construction of Anqing API factory and the launch of new varieties in the future, the API plate is expected to contribute more profits.
NMS authorized variety milestone benefits are expected to be realized one after another, own variety research and development steadily promote NMS is an Italian new drug research and development company acquired by the company in 2017, as a world-class anti-tumor drug research and development platform for small molecules, NMS's own value has been gradually recognized and reflected in the market. FDA approved the launch of Entretini in August 2019, and the global peak sales are expected to reach US $2 billion. NMS has achieved a milestone income of US $52 million. At present, NMS has authorized a total of 5 varieties, including Entretini. With the clinical promotion and marketing of these varieties, NMS will get many milestone earnings and sales share one after another.
The research and development of its own variety has progressed steadily. Danusertib for solid tumors has entered the second phase of clinical practice. NMS P088 and new PARP1 inhibitor NMS P293 for recurrent / refractory acute myeloid leukemia (ALM) have entered the first phase of clinical practice. PARP1 inhibitor is known as the next anticancer drug after PD-1. The company's P293 is safer for selective inhibition of PARP1, and the blood-brain barrier permeability of the product is much higher than that of orapalil. It is expected to become an inhibitor of Best-in-class PARP in the future.
Company profit forecast and investment rating: we are optimistic about the steady growth of the company's injection business and the deepening integration of innovative business. The company is expected to achieve revenue of 9.45,11.79 and 1.421 billion in 2019, 2020 and 2021, and its net profit is expected to reach 1.06,1.30 and 154 million yuan respectively.
Risk tips: injection sales are not as expected, API contributions are not as expected, innovative drug introduction is not as expected, and other risks.