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湘潭电化(002125):业绩略低于预期 关注公司转型正极材料供应商进展

浙商證券 ·  Oct 22, 2019 00:00  · Researches

Third quarter results: year-on-year decline: 24% year-on-year, the company's third-quarter revenue was 327 million yuan, down 0.6% year on year; third quarter net profit fell 24.8% year on year; single quarter fell 32% month-on-month; performance was lower than expected: gross margin declined and financial expenses increased - sales volume expected to be stable: the company did not disclose sales data. According to the company's main downstream alkaline dry battery export data, demand for alkaline dry batteries remained stable, and domestic lithium manganate production was 37,552 tons in the first half of 2019, up from the same period last year 25%; According to our sales data in the same industry, demand for electrolyzed manganese dioxide also declined in the third quarter due to the slowdown in NEV growth; — Prices fluctuated to a certain extent: Judging from Baichuan data, the current price of 91% mercury-free alkaline electrolyzed manganese dioxide was about 1,1500 yuan/ton, down about 1,000 yuan/ton from the second quarter. Judging from the company's gross margin, gross margin fell 1.2 percentage points; the company's electrolytic manganese dioxide price was lower than our expectations, and the growth rate of downstream demand slowed down. ——The increase in the company's financial expenses exceeded expectations. The company's financial expenses rose by about 8 million yuan month-on-month, and the year-on-year increase of about 10 million yuan, mainly due to the increase in corporate loans; investment income declined month-on-month, which also reflected intense competition for cathode materials, affecting the benefits of participating companies: ——The company's inventory increased; from 310 million yuan in the same period last year to 450 million yuan in the current period; risk alert: ——Raw material prices fluctuated more than expected — potential changes in the cathode material technology route; profit forecasts and valuations did not take into account the company's additional issuance situation and were lowered for the time being In 2019-2021, the company's EPS was 0.18,0.27,0.33 yuan/share (previously 0.21, 0.33, 0.41 yuan/share), and PE was 27.8 times, 18.7 times, and 15.5 times, respectively; at the same time, it maintained the company's shareholding rating, considering the company's scarcity as a supplier of manganese as a cathode material and concerned about the rapid development of cathode materials from Hunan Yuneng New Energy Company

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